The events of the Wall Guard throughout Israel, and especially in the cities involved, have burned into the public consciousness the repressed possibility of another front in any case of a war clash between Israel and one of its enemies.
Refers to the Arabs of Israel.
This sad recognition is reflected in the data of the "Israel Today" survey, almost a year later.
The data are almost self-evident, though pessimistic, and perhaps gloomy, if internalized.
Is it any surprise that almost 80% of the public believe that violent riots of a similar magnitude are very likely to occur again in the future?
And you can add, not the farthest.
Moreover, about half of the public (49%) believe that if riots between Jews and Arabs break out again in the mixed cities or in areas threatened by Arab localities, such as traffic arteries in the periphery, they will be even more violent.
It may be worth noting to ourselves that the natural tendency of human beings who have experienced the shock of threatening events is to anticipate the future in accordance with past events, especially the recent past.
It is not at all certain that the scenario of a repeat outbreak in the familiar patterns will come true.
Even the hard data do not necessarily indicate a sweeping deterioration in Jewish-Arab relations, although considerable rates, as reflected in the survey data, report that their contacts with acquaintances in Arab society have diminished, or vice versa - of Arabs versus Jews, and visits to Jewish shops and restaurants have decreased. Arabs, and vice versa.
What can be speculated is that within Arab society a broad organization has been formed, which includes several thousand young people, who know how to band together on the day of command to cause violence against the Jews.
Relations between Jews and Arabs at the street level can continue and be good;
In Jerusalem, it is very noticeable that Arabs who work in various commercial centers, from fitness clubs and swimming pools, through pharmacies to the management of shops in Jewish neighborhoods, continue to be involved in commercial life.
But unfortunately, the broad phenomenon in it does not indicate the danger of the inner front.
The sadness of coexistence
About 48% (almost half of the public) believe that the riots that will take place somewhere in the future will have a wider participation among Israeli Arabs.
The pessimistic recognition as a result of the Wall Guard riots is reflected in the fact that 76% of the public believe that there is no chance, or little chance, that Jews and Arabs will be able to live quietly and maintain coexistence in mixed cities in the coming years.
This atmosphere has been expressed in many articles in the press.
Carmel Luzzatti's film stood out here 11, which hit the screens about six months after the riots.
As Erel Segal concluded in this newspaper: Israeli Arabs do not apologize, even after killing, burning and destroying a lot of Jewish property. Inside it - synagogues. On the contrary, in front of the camera and microphone of public television they threaten that it will happen next time. Defend itself against Hamas, an Islamo-Nazi organization. The Jews conveyed to them that they did not internalize the magnitude of the danger when they invited a sister party, the southern faction affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, to form a shaky government coalition. It is more pleasant and preferable to the incessant violent friction of the state and the Israeli public with the terrorist organizations within the Arab public, which means that there has been a greater erosion in deterrence.
Israel has experienced two similar periods of internal Arab violence at long intervals.
The first, Earth Day events at the end of March 1976, during the first Rabin government;
And the so-called "October events" of 2000, which are in fact the beginning of the second intifada on the Israeli side of the Green Line.
The different periods are separated by 25 years, and about 20 years between 2000 and 2021.
In the first two attacks, the response of the security forces was more difficult.
In 1976, six Arab residents were shot dead and in 2000, 13 were killed.
Deterrence increased after the original Land Day following a boom in population in the Galilee, including the establishment of settlements called Mitzpeim.
Then the antisemitic expression of "Judaization of the Galilee" was invented.
Compared to '76, the events of October resulted in a commission of inquiry, which some claim to have castrated Israel's defensive response capability.
In the first two periods, Arab violence came as a result of the PLO's intrusion into Arab society, and later also as a result of inspiration from Hezbollah's successes in southern Lebanon.
The riots that continued into June, in fact, did not stop;
They dropped to a level of small fire, and in quite a few cases last summer - large fire.
Huge fires.
And in winter - displacement of plantings in the Negev.
Then an ongoing wave of crime and murder in the Arab sector.
Major General Gershon HaCohen wrote in this newspaper that anarchy in the Arab sector seeks to undermine state sovereignty.
There are no ideological statements, but the celebration of crime, robbery and murder cried out: the rule of law in Israel has stopped here.
Studies on terrorism from 15 years ago or more have already shown that a hybrid connection has been established between the criminal and the nationalist.
In the past year we have seen this well.
Political blood circulation
As in other opinion polls, the opinion of the participants in the survey reflects a clear correlation between the patterns of party voting and the answers in the survey.
For example, Likud voters believe at considerable rates that a violent attack by Israeli Arabs in the future will be more violent than we have known in the past.
This is 64%.
In contrast, blue and white voters are more optimistic: only 38% think future riots will be more violent.
The further to the left, the greater the optimism about this issue: among voters there is a future, it is 22%, and Meretz voters believe that Dad will have mercy: only 16% of them think that future violence will be more severe.
On the question of the level of participation of Israeli Arabs, Likud voters present a right-wing profile;
55% of them think that Israeli Arabs will participate in higher numbers in future events.
The differences between right and left are also reflected in the appreciation of the very possibility that riots like the Guardian of the Walls will repeat themselves in the future.
While close to 80% of the public believe it will happen again, Labor voters, blue and white, have a future and new hope give the riots a relatively low chance: 23% (Labor), 17% (Blue), 19% have a future, And new hope - 20%. It is interesting that RAM voters are divided 45% -45% among those who believe that the riots will return to those who deny the return of the riots to the cities involved.
But the question that seems to be the most obvious X-ray reflection of the split of positions is on the issue of revoking the citizenship of Israeli Arabs who participated in the murder of Jews.
Among the ultra-Orthodox, you find almost one hundred percent support for the denial of citizenship (97%), and the Likud is also in sweeping support of 90%.
On this issue, voters also have a future and blue and white are with the "right" at considerable rates (71% and 75%).
In contrast, Avigdor Lieberman's party is clearly in the left-wing districts, and that means a lot.
Only 29% of the voters of Yisrael Beiteinu support the denial of citizenship to Arab citizens who committed killings at the Wall Guard.
It is in the party of someone who only a few years ago created government crises around the question of "the death penalty for terrorists."
We live all the time in election rounds in Western democracies, from Hungary, through France, Britain and the US or Germany. Leaders change positions by several degrees and gradually. But such transparent and rude opportunism exists only in Israel, and Lieberman's ability to move from right to left within three years It can only be attributed to the media shield, which is given to right-wing leaders who go against the Likud, and personally against Netanyahu.
Further evidence of the change in the electoral circulation in Yisrael Beiteinu is also found on the subject of "the chances of a common life" of Jews and Arabs.
The figures are lower than those of Labor and Meretz voters, but they are significantly higher than those of the Likud and the right.
30% of Lieberman voters give a good chance of coexistence and living together.
In the Likud only 9%.
Work - 47%.
Meretz is similar to the common list on this issue, and pessimistic PM voters like the Likud: only 10%.
Lieberman marked a new enemy for Israeli society, and these are the ultra-Orthodox;
He and his friends ran a campaign bordering on anti-Semitism against the ultra-Orthodox and the religious.
But it turns out that most of the public thinks there may be another enemy.
Past experience, since the beginning of the violent friction between Jews and Arabs in the country, shows that an internal peace life is conditioned by the intensity of the state's deterrence and the degree of dominance of Jewish sovereignty.
The key question that highlights the split between supporters of the current government and its opponents is, does the inclusion of an Arab party in the government contribute to improving relations between Jews and Arabs?
In the Jewish public, only 27% believe that the prime minister in the government improves relations. In contrast, it seems that a clear majority among the Arabs, 59%, believe that the incorporation of the prime minister contributes to the relationship.
A clear majority among coalition party voters - from Yisrael Beiteinu to Meretz thinks like the Arab public - between 54% (New Hope) and 68% (Meretz).
Were we wrong?
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