The decision of the UN General Assembly to ask the International Court of Justice in The Hague to formulate a legal opinion regarding the Israeli occupation of the West Bank will not have an immediate effect on Israel, but it will be a weight on the neck of the new right-wing government in Jerusalem.
why is it important
The coalition agreements detailed a series of plans for Israeli moves to deepen the occupation in the West Bank, including the promotion of annexation.
If even some of these measures are implemented, they will be used as ammunition by the 15 judges of the International Court of Justice who will work in the coming year on the legal opinion on the subject.
On the other hand, when Netanyahu is the most moderate member of the government that includes Itamar Ben Gabir, Bezalel Smotrich and their friends, the Prime Minister will be able to use the International Court of Justice as an argument to stop the movements of the extreme right.
In the news center
Senior officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs concluded with satisfaction the vote at the UN General Assembly. From the perspective of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was an honorable loss. The conservatives will compare it to the result of Saudi Arabia in the World Cup. The liberals to that of Morocco.
From the beginning, there was no chance of preventing the adoption of the decision, which received an almost automatic majority, But compared to the previous vote on the issue in one of the UN committees, this time more countries voted against or abstained and fewer countries supported.
The Hague Tribunal (Photo: AP)
Senior officials at the Foreign Ministry said that the 23 countries that opposed the decision will be Israel's "base" in the political-legal struggle that will begin in the coming weeks in an attempt to influence the court.
Israel would like these countries to formally address the judges and explain why they voted against.
The process of publishing the court's opinion will last at least a year and maybe even two.
He will not help Israel's image in the world.
Although the opinion is not binding, countries and organizations will be able to use it as a justification for imposing sanctions against Israel.
The big picture
The legal process at the International Court of Justice joins the investigation against Israel at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, which is on hold due to the war in Ukraine, but could come back to life at any moment.
These two international constraints are also joined by a series of red lines that the Biden administration will set for the new government in Jerusalem and European pressure that will increase if the Europeans feel that there is a green light for this from Washington.
The moderate element in his government.
Netanyahu in plenary, this week (Photo: Reuven Castro)
If Ben Gvir and Smotrich understand these constraints and reset their ambitions and plans, it will be less difficult for Netanyahu to navigate within this political minefield.
If his coalition partners decide to ignore the situation, this could be a recipe for a confrontation with the international community and perhaps even a political crisis that will lead to a change in the composition of the government.
what are they saying
Dr. Panina Sharvit-Baruch, who previously served as the head of the international law department at the military prosecutor's office, said that the Israeli government's policy and manner of conduct can affect the content of the court's determinations and their severity, as well as the degree of support and adoption of the content of the opinion by the international community.
"Statements and steps "Contains an explicit rejection of international law, including measures of annexation of the territory or a blatant violation of the rights of the Palestinians, as well as weakening the democratic structure of the state by damaging the separation of powers - they will all be used in the international campaign and may greatly worsen the damage to Israel," she said.
between the lines
The decision at the UN creates a paradoxical situation in which there is no real disagreement between the claim of the Palestinians who promoted the move and the claim of the majority of the Israeli government that tries to prevent it. Both sides agree that Israel's policy is the continuation of the occupation and annexation of the West Bank.
Will we reset their plans?
Ben Gabir and Smotrich (photo: Yaniv Khalif, Yaniv Khalif)
The only difference is that, unlike the Palestinians, according to the majority of the Israeli government, this is a positive process that must be strengthened and accelerated.
It was even written in the coalition agreement.
When this is the case, it will be interesting to hear if the lawyers Smotrich and Ben Gvir will propose their own legal strategy in the cabinet discussions or if they will agree to flow with the legal advisers of the "Deep State" in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice.
What next
One of the main questions will be whether Israel will boycott the procedure or participate in it and try to influence it.
In similar cases in the past, there were quite a few people in the Foreign Ministry who believed that it was in Israel's interest to cooperate.
Not sure that the current composition of the government is a good idea.
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occupation
The International Court of Justice
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