This will be the scourge of the storm 'Oscar'

A week begins that will have as meteorological protagonist Óscar, the 15th storm of great impact of the season that was named on Sunday by the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet). Óscar, an anomalous storm for the beginning of the meteorological summer to be typical of autumn / winter, will have a greater impact in the Canary Islands, where it will leave very abundant rains and intense winds on Tuesday and Wednesday. In the Peninsula, widespread rainfall in the western half and the central area from Wednesday to Friday, details Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Aemet. As for temperatures, carousel: they will rise this Monday and Tuesday and fall "clearly" on Wednesday to recover again on Thursday. In general, "it will be a milder week than the previous ones, a little cooler than normal still in the center and the southern half, but with more than 25 ° in large areas and even 30 ° / 32 ° in points of the south and west of the Peninsula ".

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Aemet names the storm 'Oscar'

Is this storm something normal or is it another example of how altered the climate is? "It is not usual to have this atmospheric dynamic at this time," responds Del Campo, to emphasize that "it is only the second time that a deep storm is named in June." The expert points out that "we will have to analyze more calmly the root causes" of this phenomenon, whose root is the "presence of a powerful and persistent blocking anticyclone for three weeks centered in the British Isles." These high pressures "force the low pressures, such as the danas – isolated depressions at high levels – that have predominated in recent weeks and that are more normal at this time of the year, and like this infrequent storm, to look for a way further south than usual," says the meteorologist.

In addition, the storm comes "quite loaded with moisture", since it drags "an atmospheric river, a large current of very humid air that comes from tropical latitudes and that crosses the entire Atlantic", also more common in autumn. The ocean this year "is warmer than normal", up to two degrees above in the Canary Islands, which translates into a greater evaporation capacity. Another proof of the strangeness of this phenomenon is that the US National Hurricane Center is monitoring the storm because in the next few hours it could acquire some characteristics of tropical systems. "This does not mean that it will become a tropical storm," clarifies Aemet. The probability is only 10%.

To gauge what these two days of rain in the Canary Islands will mean, we must bear in mind that June is extraordinarily dry in the archipelago. In Santa Cruz de Tenerife, the average for all of June is just one liter per square meter; at Tenerife North Airport, the wettest area, 11 litres; in Izaña, near Mount Teide, "no drop, zero liters"; the same as in the eastern islands of Gran Canaria and Lanzarote. "It is extremely rare that it rains in June in the Canary Islands and more with the intensity that it will do," summarizes Del Campo.

With great caution, given that "the complex orography of the islands can help to make the rains stronger and more abundant", the models suggest that on the west façade of La Palma, Tenerife and La Gomera they can fall from 30 to 40 liters, although locally the accumulated may be higher. In La Palma and El Hierro up to 60 liters can be collected in 12 hours. The meteorologist asks for special attention "to the ravines that are usually dry, because in the islands they have a lot of slope and it may not be raining at one point, but higher up and produce a flash flood like those in the Mediterranean. " In the Peninsula, between Oscar and the storms will be collected this week in the south of Galicia and the surroundings of the central system more than 50 liters, in the northwest, eastern Andalusia, interior of the Valencian Community and east of Castilla-La Mancha, between 20 and 30.

The prediction, day by day

To start the week, this Monday there will again be almost generalized stormy showers in the peninsular interior, which will be locally very strong and accompanied by hail in some areas, such as the east of Castilla-La Mancha and the interior of the Valencian Community. They can also be strong in the Balearic Islands, especially in Mallorca. There are orange warnings, the second of a scale of three, in Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, Galicia and Valencia, at the risk of falling more than 30 or 40 liters per square meter in just one hour. And this evening the first rains of the storm Oscar will arrive in the Canary Islands, especially on the island of La Palma.

On Tuesday, the effects of the storm "will be more noticeable in the archipelago, with heavy or very heavy rains, especially in the west and south of the western islands – La Palma, El Hierro, La Gomera and Tenerife – and Gran Canaria". In Fuerteventura and Lanzarote it will not rain with such intensity. But the most dangerous will be the wind, which will blow "very strongly on the most mountainous islands" and may exceed 90 kilometers per hour in the north of Tenerife and west of La Palma. There are orange warnings for wind on both islands, where there is also yellow, the least, for rain and bad sea, as well as yellow for rain in Gran Canaria, La Gomera, El Hierro.

In the Peninsula it will be a day "quieter, without as many storms as in previous days", but they will form again and may be locally strong in mountainous areas and their surroundings of the northern half and the eastern third. Temperatures will be higher: temperatures will exceed 25 ° in large areas and more than 30 ° in the valleys of the Ebro, Guadiana and Guadalquivir. In the latter, 32° could be exceeded.

Wednesday will be the second day of scourge of the storm Oscar in the Canary Islands, with rains again more abundant in the most mountainous Canary Islands, where they may be locally strong, even persistent, and weaker in the eastern islands. The southwesterly winds will also blow strongly, which will be especially intense in high areas. In the Peninsula, the influence of Oscar will also be noticed. "Its associated fronts will leave rains in large areas of the territory, especially on the western façade, in the central area and in Andalusia," says Del Campo. Where rainfall will be more intense and persistent is in Galicia and in the south of the Andalusian community, while the areas with less probability will be the northeast – especially Aragon and Catalonia – and the Balearic Islands.

Evolution of the situation on the surface for the next 72 hours, https://t.co/XZgPFkyP2Q pic.twitter.com/78QpNGxT9R

— AEMET (@AEMET_Esp) June 5, 2023

Temperatures will drop in almost the entire country, a decrease that in some areas of the west and south of the Peninsula will be 6 ° to 8 ° compared to the previous day. "Even so, there will be a warm atmosphere in the Bay of Biscay, with 30° in Bilbao, Seville will also reach 30°, Zaragoza and Oviedo will be around 27°/28°, while Madrid and Salamanca will remain only at 20°", points out the Aemet spokesman.

On Thursday, the storm will move away from the archipelago, although there will still be "occasional rains in the Canary Islands of greater relief", while the winds will calm down. However, it will approach the Peninsula and will remain stagnant to the west, so the rainfall associated with Oscar will continue, which will affect many areas. "The lower and middle Ebro, the Mediterranean coast of the Levante and the Balearic Islands will be a little left out," says Del Campo. Temperatures "will clearly rise in most parts of the country."

The following days "there will still be a probability of rainfall, although in principle it seems that they will be more limited to the north and east of the Peninsula than in previous days." Temperatures will remain broadly unchanged, although they will rise in the eastern third. In the Mediterranean area there will be points, especially in the interior of the communities of the Levante, where they can exceed 30° or 32°, as well as in the valleys of the Ebro and the Guadalquivir.