Israel is facing dramatic times. The model of the People's Army is like all the good things that are taken for granted - only when they disappear will we recognize their absence and fragility.
Dismantling the People's Army model will be critical to Israel's security. The dissolution has already begun. The attempts to keep the IDF out of the political discourse are no longer relevant, and the discourse on why we have come this far is important, but irrelevant and counterproductive.
The IDF was in the midst of the event, and the expectation that it would remain outside of it was probably naïve considering the fact that it was the people's army in the full sense of the word. An army whose secret strength is not blind obedience to orders, but the spirit of volunteerism and initiative that is woven into all its unique elements of strength. The same volunteer spirit of many sectors of the population, right and left, center and periphery, religious and secular – is what turns the IDF into a people's army.
IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Photo: IDF Spokesperson
This spirit of volunteerism is in existential danger, and without it, the IDF we know and love as the people's army will fall apart. All that will remain is an ordinary army, devoid of the unique luster we love, which is part of Israeli culture and the secret of our deterrence.
161 Air Force Reserve Officers Announced Immediate Termination of Volunteering // Photo: David Nester
On the practical level, without the reserve system, which is based almost entirely on volunteerism, the IDF is a small army with much more limited capabilities than those that exist today. The reserve army allows Israel at once, given an order, to turn the IDF into one of the largest, and certainly the highest-quality, armies in the region. It is true that not everyone is a volunteer and those who receive a legal order are obligated by law to serve, but legal orders (those that meet the standards of advance warning) are rare among the following groups: commanders of reserve units, reservists serving in regular units and members of special units. These people find themselves in a constant state of volunteering, and the challenge is especially great because it is a professional backbone and critical to the army's competence. Weakening the motivation to serve these groups can be devastating.
The Israeli Air Force, which is one of the best in the world, is based almost entirely on volunteerism. From volunteering for a pilot's course, through the special units of the Air Force to the pilot instructors who accompany the pilots many years after they could retire. Even in the various Military Intelligence units, and especially in units that provide Israel with significant cyber and technological capabilities, the basis is volunteering for significant service, and sometimes longer than usual.
The IDF's most elite units are also volunteer-based. There is not a young Israeli who is not familiar with the IDF's "consolidation of cruisers" – the best of our youth, who compete for a place in these cruisers. Becoming an officer in the IDF is also based entirely on volunteering and on the desire of young people to continue contributing to the IDF and the country. In this case, too, the lack of motivation to volunteer will weaken the IDF's powerful core components: air, intelligence, special forces.
It will take time to heal the wounds
Israel continues to injure itself these days, and the more we continue this dangerous trend, the more we are liable to erode the equation of regional deterrence. In general, deterrence is not a measurable concept, but a component related to psychology that can only be assessed when it fails.
Pilots Illustrative, Photo: Ami Shumen
A key part of deterrence is based on narrative and imagery, not facts. At the moment, Israel's balance of deterrence is mostly positive. Despite the increasing threats and the deepening internal rift, we are witnessing relative security stability on the various fronts.
However, the risk is that over time, the image and visibility of what we do for ourselves may convince our adversaries that our overall power has diminished. There are places where a slight change in the balance of deterrence will lead to severe consequences.
For example, the northern sector vis-à-vis Hezbollah, where it is evident that Nasrallah already suffers from a false sense of self-confidence. Another arena in which any slight change will affect the balance of deterrence is Iran. The same Iran, which is already unconvinced of its credible military threat, is still afraid of the IDF's capabilities, a fact that restrains it to some extent.
Photo: Reuters // Nasrallah (Archive),
The Palestinian arena will be less affected by the incident because of the daily friction that demonstrates to them Israel's capabilities. Nevertheless, there is a possibility that Iran will try to activate the Palestinian and internal arena in order to further feed the demon dance that is taking place here. Above all this is the deepening crisis in US-Israel relations, which is also related to the administration's fear of losing the shared values on which the special relationship is based.
In light of all this, there is no other choice. The Israeli government is the only one with the power to prevent the continuation of this trend of dismantling. The prime minister is well acquainted with the map of threats, and the expectation from him is one – to stop and recalculate his course. Changes in the judicial system must be sought with broad consensus. The wounds will take many years to heal, but if we do not stop now, there may no longer be what and who to heal.
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