As the riot over reducing the grounds of reasonableness, which was at the center of the Knesset's summer conference, subsided, voices increased over the weekend calling for the establishment of a national unity government. Is there a chance? The truth is that it is extremely tenuous. At this moment, not one, but several chasms separate the unity scenario from the current political reality.
The first obstacle is the bitter personal residue between the supposed main matchmakers, Netanyahu and Gantz. The prime minister is known to have particularly thick skin. Still, the personal boycott that Gantz, Lapid and the others imposed on him left cracks in him. If he does not have an extraordinary necessity to cooperate with any of them, he will not do so.
Lapid announces the explosion of negotiations
Netanyahu also did not forget Gantz's torpedo of the sovereignty plan in 2020, at the end of Trump's term. His attitude toward the American administrations is even fundamentally different from that of Gantz, and of the defense establishment in general. Third, Gantz will demand the removal of Ben-Gvir and perhaps Smotrich from the government. As far as Netanyahu is concerned, dismantling the "conservative camp," which has followed closely in the desert of the opposition, would be nothing short of a political betrayal. If Netanyahu resigns from the two, he will find himself attacked by them every Monday and Thursday. Moreover, in a government that does not include them, Netanyahu will depend on Gantz and others. In other words, he will be in danger of being caught politically at any given moment. It is very difficult to see him entering such a danger zone.
On Gantz's part, the charges are no less bitter. As far as he is concerned, Netanyahu deceived him when he did not fulfill the rotation agreement in the unity government established by the two, at the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. Following the dissolution of that partnership, Gantz pledged countless times that he would no longer sit down with Netanyahu. If he does, the studios will show him the archive recordings and Lapid will impregnate him, as he did in 2020. So why should he?
There is no great love there, Gantz and Netanyahu, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Politically, Gantz would be better off maintaining his huge lead in the polls, in the hope that he will be able to form a government with him in three years. The government's belligerence only benefits him. Also, in order to stabilize the government, he has to bring Gideon Sa'ar and his faction with him, which is highly doubtful that can happen.
Finally, we can recall the talks at the president's residence, which ended with an explosion. With such a lack of trust, it is difficult to see how coalition agreements can be made.
The conversations at the President's Residence (archive), photo: Kobi Gideon/GPO
Despite this, political life has its own dynamics. The Likud was and will want to remain a centrist party. His weakening in the polls, and of course the intensity of the protests, are making their mark on some of his senior officials. Netanyahu himself is not happy with the coalition casting forced upon him, especially the partnership with Ben-Gvir. At some point, he may want to get out of the corner. And of course, there is concern that the internal rift will lead to real national distress, whether in security or in the economy. So at the moment a unity government seems far away, but in politics "never say never".
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