All eyes are on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The Knesset's winter conference, which will open immediately after Sukkot and continue until close to Passover, will be decisive for him – in challenges, promises and a legal deadline.
What will ensure that all the stars align for him is the agreement with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu is about to "commit suicide" on him, at almost any cost.
Netanyahu presents map of peace in the Middle East // Reuters
He owed it. The partnership's agreement was repaired with much blood, and he will not shed a tear if Ben-Gvir breaks the dishes. He truly believes that the jewel in the crown, Saudi Arabia, could be a tiebreaker and lead to a change in the coalition as well, to the point where fingers are found to supplement his 61 if necessary. The team around him will whitewash for him all the failures of the agreement, including the Saudis' demand for a civilian nuclear program. The laundering will be done in reasoned reports and presumably at the expense of benefits to the Palestinians, which could help smooth the agreement down the throats of its partners on the right. Fortunately for him, Netanyahu's schedule coincides with that of President Biden, who also wants to sign the agreement by the end of 2023. A tight and challenging schedule.
Peace with Saudi Arabia will ensure Netanyahu's place in history, similar to Menachem Begin, who signed peace with Egypt, and Yitzhak Rabin, who signed peace with Jordan. This will complete Netanyahu's legacy, and he will be able to turn to his legal affairs – not the legal reform that doesn't really interest him, except for the issue of incapacitation that makes his sleep wander, but his own affairs in the cases of the thousands.
Netanyahu speaking at the rally, Photo: Getty Image
The hourglass is running out
A senior attorney familiar with Netanyahu's legal affairs recently told me that the prime minister's hourglass to reach a lenient plea bargain is running out. According to him, Netanyahu is aware of this and has high hopes that an agreement with Saudi Arabia will help him in public opinion, in the opinion of the judges and in the opinion of Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara.
The attorney estimated that from the moment Netanyahu signs the peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, his representatives will begin talks with the State Attorney's Office to reach a plea bargain, which may also include stepping down from the political-political stage. To the best of his understanding, the talks will begin in early 2024 and must be concluded before Netanyahu takes the witness stand in his trial, which is expected in June 2024.
Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman, photo: AFP
The same attorney also recommends that the attorney general hold the talks under the radar, appoint only one person of confidence, as well as from Netanyahu's side, in order to prevent leaks that would torpedo the arrangement. The attorney also raised another possibility, according to which if an agreement is signed with Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu will be the one to dissolve the Knesset, at a time convenient for him, will not run in the next elections and will be free to reach a plea bargain, perhaps even from a more convenient position.
An extremely important conference
In any case, the Knesset's return to activity after a long summer vacation does not bode well – neither for the coalition, nor for the opposition, nor for the state. The protests, the religious-secular tension and the growing tensions within the right-wing dream coalition increase the sense of uncertainty.
The opposition has not been wise enough to take advantage of this, and its members do not speak with one voice. Benny Gantz, who is almost tripling his party's strength in the polls, is walking between the drops for fear of losing votes... Surveys. Yair Lapid, in order to regain lost votes, declares that primaries will soon be held for the party's leadership. The last person to demand primaries became a researcher at a research institute and a writer of articles.
His prediction may yet come true. Torch, photo: Coco
All these things make the upcoming Knesset conference extremely important. This may also be the reason Lapid reiterated that there will be general elections in 2024. We already see Itamar Ben-Gvir's attempt to differentiate himself, Bezalel Smotrich fortifying himself, the ultra-Orthodox handing out candy on the holiday; Gideon Sa'ar's candidates are running against Benny Gantz's candidates in local authorities, including Sa'ar's public criticism of Gantz; And quite a few other political signs indicate that the lava is bubbling under the Knesset building.
It would not be far-fetched to assume that Lapid's prediction may/may yet come true.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us