A little more than a year and a half into the war, alongside the struggle to free its citizens and territories from Russian occupation, Ukraine faces a series of international challenges. Israel Hayom is putting things in order.
Unmanned vessel attack on Russian naval port in Ukraine | Social Networks
The counterattack: time is running out, question marks multiply
A big question mark hangs over the success of the counteroffensive that began in June. In terms of liberated area (about 420 square kilometers), it is light years away from the blitz in Kharkiv Oblast in September last year (more than 12,000 square kilometers) or Kherson (more than 6,000 square kilometers). This time, Russia had many months to learn lessons, dig in and harden, prepare at the level of coordination between the units, and above all, allocate very high numbers of recruits.
The threat to occupied Crimea grows
On the other hand, although Kiev would be happy to repeat last year's achievements, it is believed that in the existing data, the liberation of the territories became a secondary goal: the losses were not worth the effort. Therefore, it appears that the main objectives are to inflict as heavy losses as possible on the Russian army in order to impair its ability to attack in the future, sabotage its supply lines, and increase pressure on occupied Crimea, which is full of military facilities and weapons. In the Crimean sector, Kyiv had successes that made more headlines, including damage to prestigious assets of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Moment of battle in Andreivka, in the Donbass region, photo: Reuters
What's next? The United States is unhappy that Kyiv has not allocated all its forces to the southern front and warns that time is running out until the rains begin. Kiev promises to continue fighting even in winter. Nor will the weather interfere with continued attacks on Crimea. It can be assumed that the naval attack on Russia will also continue: Kiev has greatly improved the use of unmanned vessels (UAVs) and has gained an asymmetric advantage vis-à-vis Russia.
The question of weapons
A big question will be whether Ukraine has enough weapons, due to its dependence on supplies from the West. This week, a senior NATO official warned that "we are already seeing the bottom of the barrel" and called on countries to urgently increase the pace of production. Kyiv, for its part, is working hard to upgrade its defense industry.
Biden and Zelensky at the White House, in September, photo: AFP
The American Challenge: Politics in Washington Poses Difficulties
The American political week, which began dramatically with the approval of a budget extension and became historic with the impeachment of the speaker of the House by members of his own party, could not help but worry Kiev. The U.S. is by far the number one provider of military aid, but the deal between Democrats and Republicans that prevented a government shutdown sent aid to Kyiv. Just before the dramatic vote in the House of Representatives, President Biden promised that aid to Ukraine would continue as usual. According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. has about $5 billion left to allocate to Ukraine.
Ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy leaves the House of Commons, Photo: Reuters
However, bipartisan support for Kyiv is weakening as elections draw closer. This was evidenced by Zelenskyy's non-invitation two weeks ago to address both houses of Congress, in contrast to his previous visit in December. In the Trumpist wing of the Republican Party, there are growing voices asking why they are investing more in Ukraine than, say, on the southern border of the United States. Thus, the last time a package was put to a vote in the House of Representatives, 117 Republican lawmakers voted against compared to 101 who supported it. In fact, one of the motives of the rebels against McCarthy this week was the alleged existence of a secret deal to help Kyiv. Moreover, just recently, Donald Trump said that "Ukraine is not vital to American interests," and Moscow is believed to be counting on his 2024 win in the hope that it will force a ceasefire on Ukraine.
But regardless of domestic politics, senior Biden administration officials warn that Ukraine must show achievements in addressing corruption in government. CNN reported yesterday that some of the financial aid may be contingent on progress.
EU foreign policy chief at an unprecedented meeting in Kyiv, photo: AP
The European Challenge: Facing Determination in Brussels - Cracks in Eastern Europe
This week, for the first time in the history of the European Union, the foreign ministers of member states met outside the EU's borders. It happened in Kyiv, and the message was clear: European support for Ukraine was and remains unwavering. Previously, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps had visited Ukraine and brought a similar message.
Robert Pizzo waits in the presidential palace. Could make things difficult for Ukraine, Photo: AFP
But this message should have been emphasized so much against worrisome features in Europe itself, chief among them the achievement of Robert Fico and his pro-Russian party in the Slovak elections. Under certain circumstances, Pizzo may team up with Hungary's Viktor Orban, who is close to Putin, who has been pursuing a confrontational policy toward Brussels since the beginning of the war.
The past few months have also brought about a public confrontation between Kyiv and its close ally Warsaw over wheat exports from Ukraine that have hurt Polish farmers, a significant part of the ruling Law and Justice party's base. On the contrary, the far-right Confederation party, which is expected to finish third in the final elections in Warsaw, is demanding a reduction in aid to Kyiv.
But the more tangible the cracks seem, the more willing the EU is to help. The EU's aid so far stands at about 89 billion euros, and at a meeting in Kyiv, Josep Borrell, the EU's High Commissioner for Foreign Policy, pledged that it would only expand, regardless of developments in the United States. "For us Europeans, Russia is an existential threat," he said.
This week, Politico reported that talks to admit Ukraine to the European Union will begin no later than December (Kyiv received candidate status in June). A report on progress by Ukraine (and other candidates) in fulfilling accession requirements is due next month, and once published, "the European Commission will issue a declaration that will make it very difficult for member states to oppose the opening of negotiations." This does not mean that Ukraine will be immediately admitted to the EU, far from it, but it is a very positive signal for Kyiv precisely when fatigue from it seems to be growing.
The nuclear power plant in Rivne. Condemning what you can, Photo: AFP
Infrastructure challenge: Preparing for another winter with power disruptions
Winter is approaching, and Ukraine is preparing to face attacks on power plants and substations again. Ukrainian engineers were praised for last year's effort, which prevented systems from collapsing following the strikes.
This time the challenge may be greater: according to Energy Minister Herman Hlushchenko, there is no more surplus production and too few replacement equipment left. While the Ukrainians have experience from last winter and more air defense systems than last October, Russia has also learned lessons and probably accumulated missiles. For weeks, authorities have been investing in improving protection and insulation at power plants. Outdated equipment is replaced with a new one. 100 powerful transformers were ordered for the winter, but attacks on manufacturing plants reduced the amount to be ready in time. Transformers ordered from abroad are stored in Romania and Poland. On the other hand, Ukraine is now connected to the European electricity infrastructure and, if necessary, can receive electricity from the West.
Another problem lies in personnel. For example, the private company DTEK, which produced a quarter of Ukraine's electricity on the eve of the war. Attacking its infrastructure reduced its output by 20 per cent, but 5,000 of its 60,<> employees were also recruited. According to Dmytro Sakhrouk, the company's CEO, there is also a constant cyber threat. "It's like a cat and mouse," he told The Economist. "We're always on the move."
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