As of yesterday, Israel is waging war in seven arenas. The multiplicity of arenas and the necessary synchronization between them make the current campaign the most complex Israel has ever waged, and one that requires composure, iron nerves, wisdom, and quite a bit of luck in order to get through it safely.
Maj. Gen. Home Front Command: "The war will be long - weeks and months" // IDF Spokesperson
The first and main arena is Gaza. The picture of Israel's ground offensive has not been sufficiently clarified, and the IDF maintains a deliberate fog of battle to confuse Hamas. It seems that when the fog dissipates, Gaza, and beyond, will be surprised by the depth of the IDF's hold on Palestinian territory. It must not be understood from this that a Hamas victory is imminent: even the most optimistic IDF commanders believe that it will take at least a few weeks to significantly damage Hamas' operational and governmental capabilities.
One of the efforts that is already bearing fruit is the targeting of the middle echelons of Hamas commanders, especially battalion commanders. This is in addition to the killing of dozens of its operatives and damage to the organization's operational infrastructure. On the other hand, Hamas is also making achievements: after the euphoria recorded in Israel yesterday with the operation to free abductee Uri Magidish, yesterday there was a more difficult day with IDF casualties. The Israeli public will need especially thick skin in order to cope with the difficulties that the coming period will bring, as a continuation of the October 7 attacks.
Israeli Air Force bombing of Gaza, photo: AP
The second arena is the north, Lebanon as the main arena and Syria as the secondary arena. Yesterday, too, on a seemingly "calm" day, there were several launches of anti-tank missiles and mortars into Israeli territory, and the IDF hit Hezbollah infrastructure and operatives. It seems that the organization is determined to maintain a certain level of fighting and to exact a price from the IDF as part of its effort to help Gaza, but the prevailing assessment is that it has no interest in deteriorating into all-out war.
A brief tour of the area indicates that the IDF is well prepared for defense on the Lebanese border. It seems that even the relatively aggressive responses to each attack surprised Hezbollah, which has already accumulated some 60 fatalities. But beyond trying to avoid war in the north in order to focus efforts on the south, the government will have to decide what to do with the enormous power Hezbollah maintains along the border: many residents explicitly declare that they will not return to their homes as long as the threat from the north is alive and well.
The third arena is Judea and Samaria. Every night, the IDF and Shin Bet carry out dozens of arrests, and the Palestinian Authority has also begun to act aggressively against Hamas operatives, fearing that they will take advantage of the momentum and turn against it. Under the events in the south, there was also a sharp increase in attacks on Palestinians by extreme right-wing elements, leading the security leadership to warn that this could deteriorate the situation on the ground. The Americans issued similar warnings, demanding that the government act to curb the extremists.
Galant with Kingfisher fighters in Palmachim, yesterday, photo: Ariel Hermony, Ministry of Defense
The Price of War
The fourth arena is depth. Its main manifestation in the past week has been the launch of weapons from Yemen into Israel – cruise missiles, drones and, yesterday, for the first time, a surface-to-surface missile intercepted by the Arrow system. After the first launches were intercepted by American and Saudi forces, the Houthis changed the drones' flight paths, forcing Israel to deal with them relatively close to its territory. It is likely that if this activity continues at the current intensity, Israel will face a dilemma whether to deter the Houthis in other ways.
The fifth arena is the abductees. Yesterday, the Hamas spokesman's statements again raised hopes for the release of many abductees, but even if such a release takes place in the coming days, the situation remains as tough and complex as it was. Israel is trying to use a number of levers – political, security and other – but may be required to pay in humanitarian currency to promote the release of abductees. The top priorities are naturally children, women and adults. Sources involved in the issue said last night that the latest figure published - 240 abductees - is not final and is likely to be updated and raised in the coming days.
Families of the abductees near the Egyptian embassy, photo: Gideon Markowitz
The sixth arena is the economy. In discussions held in recent days, the cost of the war has consistently risen as a result of the extensive mobilization of reserves, the evacuation of residents in the south and north, and the stagnation in large sectors of the economy. Recent assessments indicate a deficit of more than NIS 100 billion, which is expected to grow as the war prolongs and the return of the economy to activity is disrupted or delayed.
This arena must also include the need to rehabilitate the Gaza envelope, while at the same time taking care of the evacuated residents until they can return to their homes. So far, these processes have been partially and stutteringly, and the government needs to shift gears when it comes to providing a better response to the evacuees in the areas of employment, education, welfare, housing, and more.
Pro-Palestinian demonstration at Harvard University, photo: AFP
The seventh arena is international. It contains two main interconnected components – diplomacy and public relations – that are required in order to create the legitimacy required for Israel to continue its action. In the meantime, it seems that Israel is succeeding among Western governments that support its military moves in Gaza, but it is paying a price in world public opinion that clearly favors the Palestinian side. An immediate consequence of this is a spike in anti-Semitism around the world, which will automatically increase the risk to Jews and Israelis around the world.
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