Victory in the complex campaign against Iran and its proxies requires a clear victory in Gaza and Washington and Israeli unity. The multi-front war between Iran and its proxies, headed by Hamas, backed by the Muslim Brotherhood (Qatar, Turkey and its supporters around the world) and Israel, backed by the United States and some Western countries, has been going on for nearly three months. Each arena has its own unique characteristics, derived from the manner in which the war began, the considerations of the parties involved in it, and their capabilities.
IDF Spokesperson
According to Defense Minister Yoav Galant, Israel is fighting in seven arenas (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran), but in practice this must be added the international arena, in which Israel is fighting to maintain American backing, as well as the legitimacy of its action and existence and against anti-Semitism.
Fighting in Gaza, archive, photo: IDF Spokesperson
This is a war of no choice, which was forced on Israel and began under extremely difficult opening conditions, and precisely because of this, Israel and the United States must end in victory. To achieve it, several conditions are required. The first and most important of all is a clear victory by Hamas in Gaza and the release of the hostages. The significance of the decision is Israeli control at the end of the high-intensity fighting phase over the entire area, including Rafah and the Philadelphi Route (with the possible exception of international management of the displaced persons in the safe areas designated to ensure the safety of the population during the cleansing phase, which will probably last several months).
Prime Minister Netanyahu, Photo: Kobi Gideon/GPO
Ending the high-intensity fighting before achieving this goal, just because we reach a predetermined point in time (late January?), will allow Hamas to claim that it has forced Israel to change the goals of the war and will encourage supporters of the terrorist organization, who have set themselves the goal of ensuring Hamas' survival in Gaza, even on a small part of its territory. As long as Hamas controls the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing and is perceived by the population as a governing entity, it can claim that it has survived and, by implication, won.
Iron Sword War, renewed fighting in Gaza, photo: AFP
It is also important to deepen the American understanding that victory over Hamas requires creating a reality in the Gaza Strip that will not allow the renewed growth of terrorist elements. Therefore, not only Hamas, but also the weak and corrupt Palestinian Authority is not suited to take responsibility for Gaza the day after. The reason: It remains committed to the struggle against Israel, encourages terrorism (through incitement and paying salaries to prohibited terrorists), and sees Hamas as a legitimate organization that should be part of the leadership.
Taking control of the entire territory will give Israel the leverage it needs to release the hostages. As long as Hamas is not convinced that Israel is determined to eliminate its presence in Gaza, it has no interest in giving up its main asset, except in exchange for an Israeli commitment to avoid completing the full takeover of Gaza.
The continuation of the current situation in all arenas will harm America's standing in the region and on the global level, Photo: AP
The second condition is reaching an understanding with the American administration that this is almost as much a war as Israel's war: the continuation of the current situation in all arenas will harm its standing in the region and on the global level, and will exacerbate the threats to the security of American citizens and to Washington's interests. The Americans understand the importance of Israel's victory over Hamas in Gaza, but their declared desire to avoid being dragged into a regional war and the expectation that Israel will end the intensive phase of the fighting even before the takeover of the entire Gaza Strip is complete, encourage Iran and its proxies to continue gradually escalating their actions, in the hope that the administration will stop Israel.
Damage to Gaza during the fighting, photo: Reuters
Hamas' decision and the American understanding that this is also a war for the regional and global order, which will be translated into a willingness to act in order to win, if the Iranians and their allies do not cease their power moves and give up their capabilities, are essential for creating political pressure on Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis and the militias subordinate to Iran, and for the effective use of military force against them if necessary. This is a condition for creating a new security reality along the northern border that will give residents a sense of security and allow them to return to their homes. This is a condition for securing navigation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait; This is a condition for halting Iran's nuclear program, which again accelerated during the war. This is a condition for advancing the effort to establish a pragmatic regional center of gravity with normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia at its heart. Israel and the United States need each other in these arenas, and Israel must sharpen this interdependence and mutual asset to the Americans in order to ensure their commitment to achieving common goals.
Houthi rebels on a motorboat in the Red Sea, Photo: AP
Israel's ability to fulfill both conditions for victory will be greatly influenced by its ability to shake off the willful blindness that characterized it regarding the intentions of its enemies and to show inner unity. This is not only the clear message of the fighters and the fallen, but also the strategic order of the day. The greater and clearer the unity, the easier it will be for Israel to mobilize its strength and American support to achieve the goals of the war.
The writer was head of the research division at Military Intelligence, and is now a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and a fellow at the Misgav Institute
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us