Would we have taken a jump of several months in time? Since Friday, a remarkable sweetness, worthy of a summer day, has settled in France. "Exceptional" in the middle of winter, this episode will reach its peak this Monday, February 3 with temperatures above 25 ° C in the south of the country, according to Météo France, while the "pivotal period between January and February is almost the coldest of the year, ”commented François Jobard.
After having largely exceeded 20 ° C in the South this Sunday, the mercury will still experience a growth spurt at the start of this week. It could even reach 25 ° C in Tarbes (Hautes-Pyrénées), 26 ° C in Perpignan (Pyrénées-Orientales) or even 26 ° C or 27 ° C locally in the Basque Country. "Values close to the averages for a month in June," sums up François Jobard, a forecaster at Météo France, while the "pivotal period between January and February is almost the coldest of the year".
If going to the beach in France at the beginning of February may seem good news at first glance, make no mistake, this “wave of sweetness” comes from the same trends as the summer heat waves intensified by global warming.
A very mild winter
"Above all, it is the weather, with West-South-West air currents which bring us warm air from the Azores and the subtropical Atlantic", explains François Jobard. But with global warming, "overall we have warmer air masses than before, so with an equal meteorological situation, we tend to beat more records of warmth than in the past".
And in the mountains, this remarkable warm spell, with temperatures around 10 ° C above normal, increases the risk of avalanches. Thus, Savoie and Haute-Savoie are vigilant orange avalanche.
During these four days, the national average temperature - an index which takes into account the maximum and minimum of 30 representative stations - should oscillate between 11 ° C and 13 ° C, an episode only comparable with four days in February 1958, according to François Jobard .
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This “mild wave” comes in the context of an already particularly mild winter. Thus, the months of December and January together constitute the second hottest start to winter since at least 1900, behind the start of winter 2015-2016, according to Météo France. Over these two months, the national average temperature stood at 7.6 ° C, "a positive anomaly of 2.3 degrees above the climatological average over this period which is 5.3 ° C".