Is the worst of the new coronavirus epidemic behind us? On Saturday February 8, the World Health Organization (WHO) gave reassuring information: “We are recording a period of stability of four days, where the number of reported cases has not increased. This is good news and it could reflect the impact of the control measures that have been put in place, "said WHO emergency health program manager Michael Ryan in particular.
In mainland China, the number of confirmed cases on Monday is 40,171, or 3,062 additional individuals compared to the previous daily assessment, namely 2,656 new infected patients. These figures are significantly lower than the nearly 3,900 new infections announced on Wednesday February 5 by the Chinese authorities.
"Positive signals"
Has the peak of the epidemic been reached? "At the moment, nobody can say whether or not the peak of the epidemic has passed, notes Isabelle Imbert, CNRS researcher in Aix-Marseille, specialist in coronaviruses. Nevertheless, the indicators are rather favorable. "The signals are quite positive, but that does not mean that we will know the future of the epidemic," agrees Marie-Paule Kieny, research director at Inserm and former deputy director of the WHO .
"The speed of increase seems to be marking time: the curve of new cases declared daily is less steep than in the first days of February. The number of patients cured is increasing. This ( Monday ) morning, we announce 908 dead in China and 3281 cured. The ratio has evolved and it's reassuring, ”said the researcher.
Another positive point, she said: the severity of the coronavirus remained at its known level. Young and healthy patients who have died are rare, while the majority of victims are elderly and / or in poor health. "We also do not know of severe cases in children," notes Marie-Paule Kieny, for whom the quarantine measures put in place by China and other countries, such as France, "have therefore borne fruit" .
Finally, "research is progressing on all sides" to find treatments, continues research director Inserm. "Drug evaluations already exist, comparative tests on the disease are being carried out and we hope to know more in the coming weeks about the molecules that are being tested. "
Is the data reliable?
Certainly, the figures show a stabilization in the number of confirmed cases in China, but still we have to believe them. For Arnaud Fontanet, epidemiologist at the Institut Pasteur, “the data is not reliable. The Chinese are facing a major health crisis and they cannot manage to follow it. It is not a desire to hide information, it is above all that they no longer have enough diagnostic tests. The figures are therefore very difficult to interpret because they are underestimated. "
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VIDEO. In Asia, images of massive disinfection of streets, stations, hospitals, etc.
According to him, the modeling work carried out by researchers from the University of Hong Kong and published in The Lancet on January 31 seems more plausible. They estimated that more than 75,000 people were infected as of January 25.
Asymptomatic people can also get coronavirus. How many are there? "We do not know the rate of penetration of the infection in the population," recalls Marie-Paule Kieny. There is not yet a test available to detect antibodies in people who have been infected but have no or no symptoms. "
"New mixes of populations"
Another uncertainty: how is the epidemic going to evolve when the Chinese are gradually ending their holidays? Several cities and provinces have indeed declared the resumption of work on Tuesday, February 11. Even if students stay on vacation and companies are encouraged to let their employees work from home, "there will be new intermingling of populations," warns Arnaud Fontanet.
"It is also possible that epidemics will disappear in certain regions and appear in others," he adds. And what will happen in other countries? The numbers are increasing in many affected states. Singapore now has 43 confirmed cases, Thailand 32, South Korea 27. In France, the number of people infected remained at 11 on Monday.
"There have been worrying cases of the spread of 2019-nCoV by people with no travel history in China," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted on Sunday. Detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries. In short, we may be seeing only the tip of the iceberg, ”he warned.