For Emmanuel Macron, the epidemic is "inexorable". As for the expert Jean-François Delfraissy, received by the Head of State Thursday at the Elysée Palace, he estimates that stage 3 will be reached "in a few days, one or two weeks maximum". But what is this phase 3 which is now on everyone's lips?
Epidemic levels were developed after the H1N1 pandemic, which notably affected France in 2009, and have been adapted to Covid-19. They are part of a plan created to deal with a possible pandemic. Since February 28, France has been in stage 2 of the Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic, according to the scale established by the health authorities. Expected, the switch to the third and last step should not take long to happen.
During the first stage, the objective is to try to prevent the virus from entering and circulating on the national territory by blocking the isolated cases detected. This was done during the discovery of six contaminations in Contamines-Montjoie, in Haute-Savoie, in early February.
The second stage is decreed from the moment when sources of indigenous contamination appear. This has been the case since Friday, February 28, with several significant “clusters” detected in the Oise, in Haute-Savoie, in the Morbihan, and now in the Haut-Rhin, following an evangelical gathering. .
Mitigating the effects of the epidemic
For the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, the third stage is "inevitable". This corresponds to the epidemic itself, that is to say when the virus is actively circulating throughout the territory. It lasts from 8 to 12 weeks, the time for the epidemic to reach a peak, then to decrease.
From the moment the third level is crossed, there is no longer any question of trying to detect and isolate cases to stop the epidemic ... but rather of mitigating the effects. The strategy of the health authorities then changes to move from “a logic of detection and individual care to a logic of collective action”, specifies the document of preparation for the epidemic risk of the Ministry of Health.
If the plan is not yet public, it should include the same measures as that developed in 2011 after the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic of 2009. It plans in particular to continue and extend to all the territory the restrictive measures collective activities already applied during phase 2: cancellation of shows, sports meetings, fairs and shows, large gatherings, limitation of non-essential cultural, professional, social, educational and associative activities.
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It also provides for a blocking of trips and activities, with the encouragement of the use of individual transport and telework. Restrictions on movement, and even partial unemployment, can be envisaged, as well as the closure of educational establishments (accompanied by solutions allowing pedagogical continuity for the pupils and students concerned).
Hospitalize severe cases, confine mild cases at home
During phase 3, the entire health system is obviously mobilized, from the city doctor to health establishments via medico-social establishments, to deal with the increase in the number of cases. Clearly, even general practitioners must be able to diagnose patients, and health establishments are instructed to establish their capacity to receive patients. They are also expected to postpone hospitalizations which may be delayed.
The management of people infected with coronavirus has also changed. "We will have to explain to the population that we will not be able to devote ourselves to all the patients," explains Anne Goffard, professor specialist in coronaviruses officiating at the Lille University Hospital and the Lille Pasteur Institute. "The authorities will have to focus on those most at risk, that is to say the oldest, and people who suffer from other diseases."
The least worrying cases must be treated on an outpatient basis, without being confined to the hospital, but at home, the time to heal. "Remember that for this not very pathogenic coronavirus, it is, for the majority of the population, a grippette, with a little fever and a runny nose", continues Anne Goffard.
To cope with the resurgence of cases, the plan drawn up after the influenza A pandemic also provided for the availability of closed establishments (schools, sports centers, etc.) if necessary, and the use of volunteers and associations, in support of nursing staff.
Finally, the State must monitor the prices and availability of essential products in the places of distribution, to avoid any shortage.
TO PRINT> Infographic to download in A4 to learn all about the coronavirus