When will we see the first effects of containment? If the most visible impact for the moment is the virtual desertification of our streets, the daily number of new cases of patients with Covid-19 continues to increase. There were 1,404 on Wednesday, against nearly 1,000 the day before, according to Public Health France. Worse, 89 deaths were recorded in 24 hours, three times more than Tuesday.
This Thursday morning, the director general of Public Health France estimated on France Info that a "significant braking" of the progression of the epidemic should be able to be observed "within two to four weeks". An extension of the confinement, currently set at fifteen days, will be "very likely to be necessary," she added. The impact will be measurable within "eight to twelve days", warned Tuesday on LCI, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran.
But why so long? “It's normal not to see a drop in the daily number of cases right now. The main reason is the duration of incubation. It usually lasts a short week, but can be up to twelve to fourteen days. During this time, we do not know that we are going to become sick ”answers Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin, member of the directorate of infectious diseases at Public Health France.
To sum up: a certain number of people are already affected by the coronavirus and are still unaware of it. “There are always several days between the time you catch Covid-19 and the first symptoms and then the screening. We therefore do not immediately enter into the count of new cases, ”specifies the epidemiologist. The delay is also explained by France's policy in terms of screening. Only people who have significant symptoms are tested. This excludes a good part of the patients, since about one in three is asymptomatic.
A still very fragile effect in Italy
A glance at the curves in the two other European countries to have set up a confinement similar to ours, Italy and Spain, confirms that it will be necessary to be patient. In the Boot, totally under cover since March 9, it took a big week for travel restrictions to have their first effect. While the number of new cases had been higher each day than the previous day for almost a month, it stagnated from Sunday to Tuesday (3590 Sunday, 3233 Monday, 3526 Tuesday). But Wednesday was a dark day, with 4,207 new cases and a record 478 people dead.
The expected inversion of the curve in Italy is therefore more than fragile. Health officials estimate that the peak of the epidemic could occur around March 24, two weeks after the containment takes effect. In Spain, where it has applied since Sunday, two days before France, the daily number of new ones also continues to increase overall.
However, other positive effects of confinement can already be observed. Some hospitals are experiencing a decrease in emergency room arrivals for reasons other than the coronavirus, which allows the overwhelming majority of caregivers to focus on patients with Covid-19. In the Grand-Est region, the number of calls to the 15 has dropped "by a third for 48 hours," said Thursday on RMC Marc Noizet, the head of the emergency department of Mulhouse (Haut-Rhin).
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“Since people don't move anymore, they don't hurt themselves anymore. And those who have illnesses are at home, so they are safe from potential worsening of their chronic illnesses, ”confirms Patrick Pelloux, president of the Association of Emergency Physicians of France.
"Extremely important to continue to respect confinement"
However, registering more people positive for the virus does not mean that Covid-19 continues to spread among the population. "We must distinguish the evolution of the number of patients and the spread of the virus," said Sibylle Bernard-Stoecklin. Even if it is complicated to measure it in real time, in the absence of generalized screening, confinement has certainly helped to curb this spread between the French.
This is why "it is extremely important that they continue to respect containment measures", concludes the specialist from Public Health France. “The situation is serious. The more we respect confinement, the more the daily number of new cases detected will drop rapidly. "
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