For the fourth consecutive week, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) publishes this Friday, April 17, data on the number of deaths in France - all causes combined - figures which allow a better understanding of the related excess mortality to the Covid-19 epidemic. For the first time, after impressive mortality increases in March and early April, a slight downward trend is beginning to be registered. Decryption with Sylvie Le Minez, demographer at INSEE.
What can you say about the statistics on mortality in France that you are publishing this week?
SYLVIE LE MINEZ. We note a very strong increase in deaths in France in the second half of March and in the first week of April. Specifically, we start from an average of 1830 deaths per day, all deaths combined, between March 1 and 14, then that rises to 2250 in the second half of March, then an increase again in the first week of April, with 2,470 deaths on average per day. These figures demonstrate that there is a very strong impact on mortality in the country.
Were you able to use the figures for the following week to determine whether or not this increase continued in the second week of April?
Yes. While remaining cautious, we can say that we see a slight downward inflection from April 4 to April 10 compared to the previous week. All regions are affected by this movement, except Corsica and Hauts-de-France. It is very clear in the Grand Est, where there is a 16% drop over this period compared to the previous week, and in Ile-de-France, with −9%. However, these data are not yet consolidated. For the moment, we only have computerized dematerialized civil status reports ( Editor's note: some municipalities transmit computer data, called dematerialized, faster, others deliver slower “paper” data ).
What other lessons can we draw from these latest statistics regarding the Covid-19 epidemic?
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It has been confirmed that increases in mortality are higher among men than among women. Between March 1 and April 6, this increase is particularly clear in Ile-de-France, of 78% for men and 66% for women compared to the same period last year. I would remind you, however, that INSEE does not know the cause of death, it is other organizations such as Inserm or Santé publique France that have these data, but, statistically speaking, we observe that the male sex experiences an increase in mortality. .
What are the other "anomalies" observed compared to previous years?
The older category is clearly in excess mortality, especially that of the 75-84 years old. This therefore confirms the figures for the previous week. This population has an excess mortality of 24%. If we zoom in on Ile-de-France, one of the regions most affected by the epidemic, it is even clearer: the number of deaths for this age group increases to 88% (compared to 72% on average all ages). Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine and Essonne are the departments where this rate is the highest. The increase in deaths for those under 65 remains much smaller, at 4%.
Are Ehpad (accommodation establishments for dependent elderly people) and private homes places where you continue to notice excess mortality?
Yes, the increase continues. Concerning deaths at home, the increase is 78% in Ile-de-France between March 1 and April 6, compared to the same period of 2019. In Hauts-de-Seine, the increase reaches 136%.