Coronavirus: from Iss 92 scenarios Phase 2, collapse in June reopening everything

Testing of phase 2 reopening measures "for a period of at least 14 days, accompanied by monitoring the impact of the release of the lockdown on the transmissibility of SarsCov2". This is the recommendation contained in the technical report of the Higher Institute of Health. The document underlines that "it is evident that there is not much room for maneuver on reopenings" and it is suggested to adopt "a stepwise approach".

There are 92 possible scenarios in view of phase 2 starting from May 4 that the Higher Institute of Health (ISS) has outlined in a report anticipated by some media and already handed over to the government. In the worst of these scenarios it is expected that in the face of an almost generalized reopening, including schools, the contagion index Rt would return to above 2 and intensive care would reach saturation within just over a month, 8 June.
    In particular, reopening schools would trigger a new growth in the epidemic curve, with the rapid saturation of places in intensive care. In a second scenario, which provides for example the reopening of schools but without a restart of the productive sectors and with a reduced use of public transport, the increase in Rt would be such as to allow intensive therapies to last until October. Another scenario sees the possibility of reopening everything without teleworking but with the schools closed: intensive care would be exhausted by early August. The simulations of the ISS indicate that even if the over-50s stay home from work and limiting the over-60s' movements, the infection rate would rise again.
    Hence the invitation to the maximum caution and prudence by the ISS. The document also refers to uncertainties about the effectiveness of the use of masks for the general population since scientific evidence is limited on this aspect.

The Higher Institute of Health (ISS), the Ministry of Health, the Bruno Kessler Foundation and Inail have developed forecast models. The ISS states this in relation to what is reported by some media. These models, "functional to support the identification of possible scenarios for the coming weeks in Italy - underlines the Institute - have been discussed and adopted by the Scientific Technical Committee (CTS). The document is part of the minutes of the CTS itself and not it has privacy features. " In the next press conference, which is scheduled for next Thursday at 12, the ISS announces, "we will dedicate a specific study to the contents of that analysis".