Pablo Sigal
06/10/2020 - 7:00
- Clarín.com
- Society
Everyone knows the differences between fishing with the world and fishing with rod. In one case the harvest will be numerous, but everything can come from the sea , anything. In the other, the one that will bite the hook will surely be the fish that one expects. Taken to the coronavirus pandemic in Argentina, it implies that the country is at a crucial moment: although the virus is not seen, as occurs with the discovery of distant galaxies, there are references that allow us to begin to locate it . This means that when the fisherman goes fishing, the result is increasingly successful.
To continue with the analogy, when the coronavirus pandemic began in Argentina - this Wednesday marks 100 days - it was fished with rod: those who came from abroad and had symptoms were tested. In other words, it was very likely that they tested positive for Covid . With the passing of the weeks and more and more, the rod was changed by the middle world: the definition of a suspected case was broadened, so that many more people became potential fish in the Argentine territory. Thus, a little blindly, anyone with symptoms compatible with the disease began to be tested. But the suspicion was not always confirmed. Rather, almost never.
Let's see this reflected in figures: between March 31 and April 1, 88 new cases of coronavirus were registered and 720 were discarded . This means that 1 in 8 cases tested positive. It was the time when the number of imported cases was still dominant. Barely a week passed when the fishing rod passed into the world: more and more people began to test protocol-related symptoms of coronavirus. And what happened? Between April 8 and 9, there were 80 new cases , but 1,397 were discarded : this means that for each confirmed case, 16 were discarded.
The time when the "world" was larger was between April 18 and 19, when the number of new positive cases in 24 hours remained almost the same, at 81 , while the discarded ones grew even more and they reached 1,463 in one day . This resulted in only 1 in 18 cases testing positive . One confirmed, 17 discarded by laboratory (PCR test) or clinical epidemiological criteria.
If we wanted to find some kind of peak in this local pandemic, even if it is not because the contagion is still uncertain, it is possible to at least affirm that at that time in April the “peak of blindness” took place , that is, it went out to catch everything that looked like a fish, but few became fish. By then, there were a total of 2,839 positive cases in the country and 25,259 suspects had been ruled out.
Health personnel carry out a feverish control in the Fraga neighborhood of Chacarita.
From that moment on, what in terms of the economy of the pandemic -in strictly epidemiological terms- began to be an increasingly profitable balance. As of April 27, there was a daily increase in cases of 112 patients , while those discarded were 1,775 , so the average improved and 1 in 16 suspects tested positive. Two weeks later - an eternity in terms of a pandemic - the reality changed completely: on May 13, 285 infections were added , while the number of discarded was 2,217 . That is, 1 confirmed every 7 discarded.
It was in mid-May that the aim was sharpened. What until then was a long and wide sea for fishing, became a great lagoon, bounded only with some territorial exception -especially Chaco- to the limits of the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.
Thus, fishing with the world began to lose its meaning and the fishermen grabbed the rod again. This time, the fish to be taken from the water were not newly arrived tourists from Europe, but those Argentines concentrated in the most vulnerable areas in which physical distance is a utopia.
On May 19, one in 6 cases tested positive; on June 2, one in 4 ; and on June 8, one in 3 . In the total average, the final account shows that since the start of the pandemic in Argentina, of every 6 suspected cases, one was confirmed and five were discarded . As focused testing is reinforced, this general average may continue lowering more and more.
To put it another way: it is not bad news that coronavirus cases are growing. It is the logic of the pandemic. As long as the vulnerable population is kept protected, the fact that a decreasing proportion of cases that are tested on a daily basis is ruled out indicates that the fisherman's eyes are more open and well outlined. Although the virus is still as invisible as the essential, little by little your face begins to be guessed.
That means that the more cases are detected and the fewer are discarded, the closer you will be to closing in on the virus . So positive cases hitting the 1,141 record in a single day is only part of the picture.
The worst thing that could happen is that the proportion of discarded people increases again, because it would mean that the Covid is on the run . Community circulation of the coronavirus would begin to win the pulse of close contacts. And the fisherman would fall back into limbo, disoriented.
In sum, this is a key moment in which, while the quarantine guidelines are relaxed, the fate of the pandemic in the country will surely be decided. The best horizon: catch as many fish as possible without escaping the lagoon to win, once again, the tragic vastness of the sea.
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