"We are at the beginning of the third quarter, which will record a positive change in Italian GDP, after the minimum of the recession in the second. There are few data on the trend in July, but a rise was hardly started in May- June , however, it was partial and the risks that it is fading are high, leaving the business on compressed levels. The post-lockdown brake is the demand that remains low. " The Confindustria Study Center writes this in the July flash cycle.
"Industrial production in June recorded just + 3.9% (CSC estimates), after the good recovery in May (and -43.1% in March-April): the number to look at is -16.9 % from pre-Covid levels, recalling that recent data may be revised strongly for technical reasons. The PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) continues to indicate in June that, despite the possibility of reopening now complete, the ascent remains partial both in the industry (47.5) and services (46.4) ". As for demand, the CSC explains that "in July consumer confidence has lost ground and remains very low; despite a rebound , consumption is at -15% per year in June (Confcommercio estimates).On the other hand, there is a "partial recovery in business confidence; opinions on the conditions for investing remain negative in the 2nd quarter, albeit less unfavorable; investment expectations indicate further decline (Banca d'Italiia)". The export of goods restarted in May (+ 34.6%), but still well below pre-Covid levels (-26.1%).
Italian sales recovered compared to those of Germany and the USA . They keep in pharmaceuticals, less in food, they are almost halved in cars and clothing . The main markets are very weak. A gradual improvement is signaled by the PMI foreign orders (44.5 in June). The labor market also remains weak: "in May, the number of employees fell again (-84 thousand), but active job search has started to rise (+ 307 thousand), a good sign in the future. Employees are expected to further descend but the extensive use of the IGC will continue to safeguard jobs by adjusting the hours worked ".