Pablo Sigal
08/24/2020 - 6:01
- Clarín.com
- Society
The demographic characteristics of Argentina make the coronavirus have a particular behavior: the peak of the country will be the peak of the province of Buenos Aires , where 36 percent of the national population resides. More precisely, the suburbs, where three-quarters of Buenos Aires live. While the Buenos Aires figures seem to indicate that the local peak is lagging behind, on the other side of General Paz the curve of cases continues its maturing process . When the "planets of the AMBA" align, someone will be able to announce that the national peak has been surpassed.
The question, obviously, is when will it happen . According to a mathematical model created by three researchers from the University of Tres de Febrero, that moment is soon to happen. Néstor Barraza, associate professor of Probability and Statistics, the engineer Gabriel Pena and the doctor in mathematics Verónica Moreno assure that the peak of infections in certain countries that have already exceeded it occurred when the number of cases registered per minute was at the threshold in the that today is Argentina.
During the last week, the average number of cases was 6,658 every 24 hours. This is 277 per hour and 4.62 per minute, which gives a contagion every 13 seconds. If the same calculation is made on the record of cases from last Thursday (8,225), the account would give one case every 10.50 seconds.
But things are not as simple as a simple division, but rather the algorithm created by the experts, called MTBI (Mean Time Between Infections), puts into play the entire curve from the first case of coronavirus in the country. The variables are entered and the artifact returns a result. According to the latest record, in Argentina there is currently a contagion every 9.48 seconds . It is the real value of the interval, considering the records from March 3 to the present. That gives 6.32 cases per minute.
What does it mean? According to the researchers, it means that our country is indeed at that peak threshold . That is, there is a threshold. According to the experience of other countries that have already exceeded the peak and had health policies similar to Argentina, this instance occurred by having a contagion every 6 seconds (10 per minute), at most, and one every 12 seconds (5 per minute), As minimum. There is always talk of registered infections, which, as is known, are less than the real ones.
According to experts, the time between one contagion and another came down in Argentina during August to an average of 1.5 percent per day. On August 1, a contagion was recorded every 14.5 seconds and now it occurs every 9.48.
The Covid-19 race in Argentina
Source: University of Tres de Febrero, based on data from ECDC Infographics: Clarín
Here are some examples of the minimum time between one contagion and another in some of the countries that the experts measured with the same mathematical criteria to take as a reference: China, 11.78 seconds; Peru, 11.63; France, 11.27; United Kingdom, 10.29; Italy, 8.98; Germany, 8.60; Chile, 8.43; Spain, 6.17. After those records, in each country the MTBI began the reverse path, to be increasingly broad.
Due to the modality that the quarantine had and continues to have in Argentina, the peak will also have a special characteristic: just as there was never an abrupt increase in cases, neither will the decline be precipitous . In other words, it is expected that in the coming weeks a slow decline in the records in the entire country will begin, a figure in which the City will have less and less incidence , while the preponderance of some provinces will grow. Mendoza, Córdoba, Santa Fe and Jujuy are having today, each one, up to a quarter of the Buenos Aires infections, a panorama that until recently was unsuspected.
The number of daily cases is still high in the country and this sustained rate of accumulation has meant that last Friday Argentina also surpassed Great Britain in the total number of registered infections. A few days before, Germany, Italy and France had already been left behind. Our country is already ranked 12th in the world in total cases and is on its way to the top 10.
Neighbors for a ride in Caballito, this weekend. It is one of the Buenos Aires neighborhoods with the highest R0. Photo: Marcelo Carroll
The fact that the porteño contagiousness index (R0) has been below 1 for more than ten days - as reported on Friday - is an indication that the porteño peak would be a thing of the past. With a value of 0.95, it means that 10 people now infect 9.5. This, if sustained over time with a gradual decrease in R0, causes cases to begin to decline. The other indication that fuels the same suspicion is that the rate of positivity in PCR tests is on the decline in most neighborhoods.
The degree of acceleration of infections in the province of Buenos Aires (twice as fast as the City in the last month) implies that the time that elapses between one contagion and another in the national average is still shortening . Until now, that interval has never stopped shrinking and is what indicates that the national peak has not yet been exceeded. When that happens, researchers from the University of Tres de Febrero will be in a position to record what was the minimum MTBI index in Argentina and add it to the international list.
Argentine mathematician Daniel Gervini, a professor at the University of Wisconsin, United States, zealously follows the curves and has no doubts: “The peak of infections in the City occurred on August 12 , while to reach the peak in the province of Buenos Aires are between two and three weeks away ”.
According to Gervini, the peak in Buenos Aires was reached that day with 112,718 confirmed cases. While the Buenos Aires would arrive when there are 430 thousand cases . Almost quadruple, which coincides with the number of inhabitants of both districts.
That imminent goal does not mean that there are no outbreaks in different parts of the country later , as has been happening in recent weeks in nations that have already exceeded the peak. However, the first -and most dangerous- wave of coronavirus in Argentina will be part of the past.
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