Pablo Sigal
08/26/2020 - 20:18
- Clarín.com
- Society
Argentina is in the worst moment of accumulation of coronavirus cases. Why? The country not only has not yet passed the peak of infections in the GBA (which will be the peak of the country), but while that does not happen, the outbreaks in the Interior begin to be more and more important: that explains this Wednesday 4 of each 10 registered cases, out of a total of 10,550.
The irradiation of Covid-19 from the City and the GBA to the provinces has been warned for at least a month. It started out shy , when the figures weren't too eloquent, but they foreshadowed something. Enough has been written about the exponential of the curve . What today are two cases, in 15 days it can be a lack of control if the isolation of the infected does not work correctly.
This is said to be the worst moment because it is expected that by mid-September , according to mathematical calculations, the country will be passing the peak. That means that the greatest flow of infections, which comes from the metropolitan area, begins to decline. Now the curve still goes up with the province of Buenos Aires as the engine: the cases there went from 5,312 to 6,628 from Tuesday to Wednesday.
The sum of infections in the provinces will continue to increase, since they are now the most virgin territories for the coronavirus . At the same time, the sum of contagions in Capital and the Conurbano will be less and less when it averages September. This will mean that in the sum at the end of each day, as the Interior has a lower population density , the balance will gradually decrease.
The cases have been growing in recent days: on Monday there were a total of 8,713 cases and on Tuesday, 8,771 . On Monday, 20 percent of the cases were from the Interior. This Tuesday they already represented 1 in 4 , that is, 25 percent. This Wednesday there was a new rise to reach a total of 10,550 cases. The proportion of the Interior is maintained. In total, there are now 370,188 infections in the country .
Coronavirus in Argentina
Today the number of new confirmed cases exceeded 10,000 throughout the country.
Source: Ministry of Health of the Nation Infographic: Clarín
With that figure, Argentina has surpassed Iran to occupy the 11th position among the countries with the most cases of coronavirus in the world. Ahead, in tenth place, it has Chile, which totals 402,365, but the peak has already passed and the daily cases there are fewer: this Wednesday, for example, it only added 1,380 new cases . At this rate, it is to be expected that by the weekend our country will become part of the world's Top 10 countries with the most infections.
Clarín consulted the Argentine mathematician Daniel Gervini, a professor at the University of Wisconsin, in the United States, to try to understand why Argentina, with the longest quarantine in the world , is also one of the nations with the most cases. The conclusion of the expert is that "infections do not occur in the street , but indoors and due to the overcrowded conditions of the population."
“In third world countries with large conglomerates of slums (Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, India) the epidemic is following more or less the same pattern of uncontrolled exponential growth , which will continue until each place reaches the level of immunity herd required. In the big cities of the United States, with their peculiar demographic mix of first world Anglo-Saxon and third world Hispanic, the epidemic has followed a pattern that is halfway between Latin America and Europe, ”explains Gervini.
The expert contrasts this reality with that of the Japanese capital: “Tokyo, for example, has a huge population density but the incidence of the coronavirus is very low , because very few people live in each house. In New York, on the other hand, the epidemic was also concentrated in the neighborhoods of Harlem and the Bronx. Even in Europe, in the countries where more extended families live together (Italy and Spain) there has been more incidence than in countries like Germany where fewer people live per house ”.
Today, after the United States, Brazil and India, Argentina is the country that is adding the most cases every 24 hours . When analyzing the situation in the provinces, a noticeable increase is seen in Córdoba (355 cases this Wednesday), Mendoza (276), Río Negro (235) and Santa Fe (381). The number of interned in intensive care by Covid does not stop growing: they add 2,020, when a week ago they were 1,795.
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