Pablo Sigal
11/03/2020 1:22 PM
Clarín.com
Society
Updated 11/03/2020 1:22 PM
Argentina is counting the hours to finally reach the peak of its first wave of coronavirus.
It is practically the only country in the world that has not yet passed that stage.
Several of the European nations are already going through the second wave and in all the countries of America
the infections are in decline
.
This decline is supposed to occur shortly in our country as well.
The
MTBI
(Mean Time Between Infections)
index
, produced by the University of Tres de Febrero, is a key tool to determine when the curves of countries or provinces change trend.
That is,
when they stop going up and start going down
.
This is possible thanks to the measurement of infections according to the time variable.
The construction of this peak of national cases is being done little by little: as
Clarín
reported
, it occurred first with
the City of Buenos Aires, on September 15
;
then with
the province of Buenos Aires, on October 3
.
That was a key date, because it is the district with the largest population and that contributes the most contagions to the country.
Now it is
the turn of Córdoba
, which this Sunday, November 1, has reached its own peak of cases.
He has managed to do it without seeing his healthcare system collapse.
The peak in this province was contagious
every 29.063 seconds
.
On Monday, the district registered
just over 600 cases and a total of almost 87,000.
Santa Fe is the fourth major district and it
has not yet reached the peak
.
This Monday it registered slightly more than 1,700 cases, although in recent weeks it had days that
approached 3,000 infections
, a figure too high for the size of its population.
This has made the curve, as in Córdoba, grow faster than it did in the AMBA.
Santa Fe's current MTBI is
22.381 seconds
and it's still going down, although it is believed not for much longer.
The peak of that province would finally coincide with the national one.
It already adds up.
It already has
more than 107 thousand infections and is only 40 thousand from the City.
When each district reaches its peak, the MTBI index stops decreasing and begins to increase.
If it had not been for the form that the pandemic had in Argentina, as a
"bomb with splinters"
, the country would have reached the peak much earlier, probably when the province of Buenos Aires did.
But the bomb exploded in the AMBA and the splinters spread with a long delay in the Interior, something that made the Argentine curve
continue to rise throughout the last month.
Now the momentum of that incessant increase would have the hours counted.
These are the national MTBI data that are announcing that the peak would be imminent: between October 31 and November 2, the variation every 24 hours was barely
a hundredth of a second
.
When that process was in full swing, the daily corrections were much more extensive.
To put it another way, the curve grew a bit steeper and in the last few days it became horizontal.
This Wednesday, November 3, it will be
eight months since the registration of the first cases of coronavirus in Argentina
.
A neighbor of Puerto Madero who had returned from Italy.
He was admitted to the Sanatorio Agote.
Clarín said at that time that El Agote was an “armored sanatorium”.
It was eight months that seem like many more.
Some experts warn that because of how extensive the first wave of coronavirus has been in the country,
the second wave would not be as virulent
as it is being in Europe, with records that reached up to 50 thousand infections in one day, as in France.
Although these forecasts, like many of the uncertainties that the new coronavirus still has, for now are only speculation.
$
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