After the strong recovery recorded in the third quarter, Confcommercio launches a new alarm for consumption, which fell in October, according to the economic index calculated by the association of 8.1% compared to the same month of 2019. The slowdown has affected to an extent the tourism sector, recreational services (-73.2%), hotels (-60%), bars and restaurants (-38%) are more immediate and significant.
For the month of November, a reduction in GDP of 7.7% over October is estimated and of 12.1% in the annual comparison.
According to Confcommercio, the dynamics recorded in the last two months, barring an exceptional, but unlikely, recovery in December, lead to a preliminary estimate of a cyclical decrease in GDP in the fourth quarter of more than 4%. These assessments would not lead to changes in the overall GDP trend for 2020 (between -9% and -9.5%), thanks to a much more favorable third quarter than estimated, but would imply a much worse entry in 2021, dispelling the more optimistic statistical rebound forecasts for next year.