The transmissibility index Rt calculated on symptomatic cases is equal to 1.18
.
Average values of Rt between 1 and 1.25 are found in most of the Italian Regions / PA;
from this week in some Regions / PA the estimated Rt value is less than 1. This is evidenced by the weekly monitoring Iss-Ministry of Health.
Last week's monitoring revealed a transmissibility index Rt calculated on symptomatic cases equal to 1.43.
There were also average Rt values higher than 1.25 in most of the Italian Regions / PAs and higher than one in all Regions / PAs.
As of November 17, 18 Regions had exceeded at least one critical threshold in the medical or intensive care area.
If current transmissibility is maintained, almost all Regions / PAs have a 50% greater chance of exceeding at least one of these thresholds within one month.
The continuing increase in people with Covid-19 admitted to hospitals implies an inevitable erosion of resources for caring for patients with other diseases.
This was revealed by the draft of the ISS-ministry monitoring.
This week there is a further increase in cases which brings the incidence in the last 14 days to 732.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 26/10 / 2020-08 / 11/2020 (vs 648.3 per 100,000 inhabitants in the period 26 / 10 / 2020-08 / 11/2020).
The increase in cases is widespread in almost the whole country.
This is highlighted by the draft of the ISS-Ministry of Health monitoring.
Basilicata is the region with the highest estimate of the punctual RT calculated on November 4th, equal to 1.46.
Abruzzo (Rt at 1.32), Tuscany (1.31) and Friuli Venezia Giulia (1.27) follow.
The lowest Rt is recorded in Sardinia (0.79) and Lazio (0.82).
This is highlighted by the draft monitoring Iss-ministry of Health.
"
In the last few days the number of cases has started to flatten and this indicates the slowdown in the incidence
."
This was stated by the president of the Higher Institute of Health Silvio Brusaferro at the press conference at the Ministry of Health on the analysis of data from the regional monitoring of the control room.
"
There is an Italy that is a bit monocolor because an epidemic affects a bit the whole country
. 732 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants is the incidence at 14 days but a share of regions moves under this incidence" underlines Brusaferro.
"The probability of saturation of the beds, even those that can be activated, at 30 days, has moved a little away. This applies to both the medical area and intensive care".
This was stated by the president of the Higher Institute of Health Silvio Brusaferro at the press conference at the Ministry of Health on the analysis of data from the regional monitoring of the control room.
"
The risk is high in almost the whole country even if there are signs of improvement,
so the measures adopted must be vigorously maintained", specified Brusaferro.
The diversification strategy is therefore giving its effects, said the president of Css Franco Locatelli who specified: "I say very clearly that these indicators of improvement and deceleration of the curve must be an invitation to be even more stringent and rigorous. Rt sotto 1. The data are indicative of a significant gap that is opening up but this is a reason to insist.
Let's avoid repeating the mistakes of last summer
".
Gianni Rezza underlines that "It is envisaged that
the regions within them, at the municipal or provincial level, adopt more restrictive red zones
. This is still allowed. that is, lower or 'downgrade' in the color level "
THE PRESS CONFERENCE - Live
Three Regions are at moderate risk with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month.
Given the transmissibility and the high probability of an imminent transition to the high risk classification "it is recommended that the health authorities of the 3 Regions / PA with a high probability of progressing to high risk in the next month to evaluate the possible adoption of further mitigation measures" .
This was revealed by the draft of the ISS-Ministry of Health monitoring.
"We are worried about the upcoming holidays, but now we have the duty to analyze what will happen at Easter if this second wave is not suppressed properly. Otherwise it is like having very concentrated diets and then we get angry if afterwards we put on a pound at the week. Either you can find a maintenance, at least until the vaccine arrives, or the third wave is foregone. " This was said by
Massimo Galli,
director of Infectious Diseases of the Luigi Sacco Hospital in Milan, during the conference "Covid Geo: safe communities. Science and technology to restart safely and forever". The Election day of 21 and 22 September in Italy (Referendum and Regional elections) led to about 88 thousand more infections than Sars-Cov-2. This was said by Massimo Galli, director of Infectious Diseases of the Sacco Hospital in Milan, at the conference "Covid Geo: Safe Communities. Science and technology to restart safely and forever". Galli presented an estimate prepared by the statistician Livio Fenga of Istat. "I said 'look, this is not the time for the elections' - continues Galli - and these have cost, according to a modeling, 88 thousand cases that otherwise would not have occurred. The dead? We want to be low and count at 2%. Just think that 880 is 1%. The data is realism, "he adds.