He does not speak much, yet she is listened to.
Professor Jean-François Delfraissy agrees, this epidemic, the French have had enough, too.
But we must hold on for another three to six months, urges the president of the scientific council, responsible for enlightening the government in the Covid-19 crisis.
Beyond the note that its members have just published to provide his recommendations for the holiday season, the immunologist explains that the vaccine effect will not be visible before the summer of 2021.
While the situation was improving in France, the contamination figures stopped falling.
Why ?
PR JEAN-FRANÇOIS DELFRAISSY.
We have reached a plateau, with new cases stagnating at around 10,000 to 15,000 per day.
Probably because this virus is linked to the climate and that the cold snap has favored its "recirculation".
And also because the relaxation of measures has allowed more population movements, and therefore contamination, even if the French have respected the instructions.
The whole of Europe is affected, let's get out of this French vision where we are constantly self-flagging.
In any case, I do not believe that it could be due to a mutation of the virus.
You say that because a mutation has just been observed in England.
Should we be worried?
Since March, the coronavirus has seen multiple small mutations, but so far none of these variants have made the disease more serious.
The fear is a real mutation of the Spike protein, that is to say the one that allows the virus to hang on.
However, the one described by the English concerns this protein, and data suggests that the virus is more infectious.
This needs to be confirmed.
I am not worried because we have already raised this type of alert: remember the recent fears over mink.
READ ALSO>
Variant of Covid-19 in the United Kingdom: what we know about the mutant virus
What would be the consequences of a “real” mutation?
This could call into question the effectiveness of the vaccine.
I repeat, this is not the case with the English variant.
But it does prove that we need to watch the virus very carefully, and it is.
In France, in Europe, by the WHO
(World Health Organization)
… a strict virological watch is carried out every day, without talking about it.
The virus is under surveillance.
Morning essentials newsletter
A tour of the news to start the day
Subscribe to the newsletterAll newsletters
The latest note from the scientific council indicates that children can miss school on Thursday and Friday.
Amazing position when they are supposed to be not very contagious ...
This note is not an instruction, but an accompaniment of the French who can no longer take the constraints and who want - like you and me - to celebrate Christmas without seeing the epidemic start again.
We therefore put forward several ideas: restrict contact five days before, avoid the crowd of department stores ... And, for families who can, babysit their children the last two days before the holidays, so that they limit contact before to find their grandparents on the 24th. That's all, there is no change in doctrine, it does not in any way prefigure a closing of classes at the start of the school year.
We know that children can transmit Covid but no more than adults.
Should we at least postpone the start of the school year scheduled for January 4?
We do not expect an epidemic resumption before the 10th. A priori, the return to class must therefore be on the scheduled date.
READ ALSO>
Children allowed to miss school, confused parents
And you, what will your parties be like?
I will not be having dinner but I will have a drink and a few petits fours with part of my family on the 24th, and a drink with the other party on the 25th. There will be my grandchildren, of whom I do not know. not if they will be in class on Thursday and Friday, because that decision is up to their parents.
On New Year's Day, I will stay at home.
I do not in any way tell the French to imitate me.
Everyone acts as they see fit, like a compromise between themselves and the members of their family.
You write that if “the efforts are slackened” the consequences will be rapid.
But don't we already know that we will pay it in January?
No, because we are in an intermediate situation and I am convinced that the majority of the population, this invisible France which does not express itself, will do the best it can for Christmas.
Do not prejudge what will happen, but prepare for the start of the school year.
The evolution of the epidemic must be closely watched so that the authorities can take rapid decisions, if they are necessary.
With the Covid, the faster and stronger the measures are taken, the more effective they are.
Let us learn the lessons of September.
READ ALSO>
Covid-19: "To protect their loved ones", they will self-confine before the holidays
Are you worried about a third wave?
This risk is not negligible, but everything must be done to avoid it.
Could this rebound occur in mid-January or later?
The answer is yes, the model has not changed, the virus will continue to circulate over the winter.
The arrival of vaccines will have no impact on the first quarter of 2021 and very little on the second.
This start of the year will not be different from 2020. Let's hold on!
What will our weapons be?
On the one hand, there is the tremendous hope of vaccines, but the campaign in nursing homes will not start before mid-January and it will take until the end of April, or even May, to immunize the 22 million French people living with them. more at risk.
On the other hand, innovations are expected.
More sensitive antigenic tests, but also saliva samples.
They are known to work on people with symptoms, but not enough on those who don't.
Better tests should arrive in February.
A new drug based on monoclonal antibodies could also be validated at the same time.
This involves isolating the antibodies of patients who have had Covid, reproducing them in large quantities in the laboratory and injecting them as a preventive measure, in particular to avoid serious forms.
This is what Donald Trump received in November.
Science advances, in silence, but it advances.
In the meantime, let's remain extremely cautious for another three to six months.
This is the last effort!
Why in this case is already talking about making teleworking flexible on January 7?
It is not the scientific council that decides.
Teleworking is a good solution and the date mentioned can still change depending on the health situation.
Why not reopen the theaters when we inaugurate with great fanfare the extension of metro line 14 in Paris ...
These images disturbed me a little.
This clearly shows the fragility of the recommendations that can be made to avoid gatherings.
READ ALSO>
Vaccines against Covid-19: the French strategy in the event of adverse effects
How do you convince people to get vaccinated?
I am not sure there is such great skepticism among the elderly and frail.
They understood that the vaccine would allow them to protect themselves and resume a more normal life.
To have one in nine months, what a success.
The vaccine will be a solution to get out of this pandemic in the summer or fall of 2021. But there are still questions, the duration of the immune response and the side effects that will have to be watched with great attention.
Take our time.
There is no urgent need to immunize the whole of France!
One thing is certain, when it is my turn, I will be vaccinated, without hesitation.