The world consolidates the first setback of the coronavirus since the pandemic began

Until just a few weeks ago, the coronavirus curve in the world did not stop ascending.

With some slight ups and downs, new daily cases for April were up from March;

those of summer beat those of spring and winter has broken all records.

But the direction of the curve has changed.

It is heading towards six consecutive weeks of decline in diagnoses and three in deaths in what can no longer be considered a statistical artifact: it is a clear trend.

The bad news is that, as we have seen with the curves in each country, the drops are not final.

Until this last wave, speaking of the virus, everything that goes down ends up going up.

And this, in the opinion of the experts consulted, is what will probably happen to the world after the decline of what, adding all the global data, could seem like a single huge wave of slow progress that is now rapidly retreating.

But referring to waves when talking about global trends does not make much sense, as Daniel López Acuña, who was director of emergencies for the World Health Organization (WHO), points out.

“When you add the oscillations of many countries, the decreases of some overlap with the increases of others and in the sum, in a graph, the trends are flattened.

The virus moves in waves, as we have seen in all countries, which go up and down mainly depending on the measures we are applying, "he says.

What is indisputable is that this sum is decreasing.

According to WHO figures, the pandemic peaked the week of January 4, with more than five million new positives.

Last week, the last for which there is consolidated data, this figure fell to almost half: 2.7 million of the 110 million diagnoses that the pandemic already adds.

And this will continue to decline, for sure.

The trend in deaths is similar, but lagging behind: it settled on a plateau in April 2020, which remained more or less stable until October.

With the northern winter, deaths soared, reaching their maximum in the last week of January: more than 98,000 new ones.

Last week they were 82,538 and add up to almost 2.5 million since the beginning of the crisis.

The reasons for this drop can be several.

One of them is that in this representation the countries that do the most tests have more weight: little is known about the true magnitude of the covid in Africa, for example.

All the data presented, always from the WHO, are from confirmed diagnoses, not from real infections, which are well above even in the most developed countries, especially in the early stages, when there was insufficient evidence.

And in the states with more diagnostic capacity the epidemic is in a phase of decline after Christmas.

Among them, two of those with the highest total volume of cases, the United States and the United Kingdom, are experiencing notable declines.

"They are pulling down very strongly in world statistics," says Elvis García, a doctor of epidemiology from Harvard University.

This, added to the sharp decline in most European countries, is clearly reflected in the global curve.

The trend in Latin America, Africa and Asia is also down, but with a much smoother decline and without ever contributing so many positives.

In the case of the latter continent, the decline began in early December.

Although the two countries with the lowest decline (the United States and the United Kingdom) are also two of the most advantageous in vaccinating their population, experts believe that their effect is still marginal in the fall of the pandemic.

Antonio Trujillo, Professor of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, explains that there may be a seasonal component: “We expected that when winter arrived in the north, cases would increase.

Not only because there are more meetings indoors, where more infections can occur, but also because of the nature of the virus and the experience we have had with it after a year ”.

Taking into account that the drop in the United States, in absolute terms, is the highest in the world, Trujillo emphasizes the changes that have taken place in this country in recent weeks: “The new variants are making people more aware and protect yourself more.

The use of masks has risen and the strong growth of cases between late fall and early winter served to make society take measures more seriously.

All this can also be influenced by a political change that has put more emphasis on the fight against the virus.

Finally, this expert adds another component that may be beginning to be noticed: the immunity of the population acquired by infections.

The 'fire' continues

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the WHO, believes that the global decline "shows that simple public health measures work, even in the presence of variants."

In an appearance on February 15, he pointed out that the important thing now is to maintain the trend: “The fire is not out, but we have reduced its size.

If we abandon it on some front, it will reignite with fury.

Each day with fewer infections means lives saved, suffering averted and the burden on health systems being lightened just a little.

And today we have even more reasons to hope that we can control the pandemic. "

The curve can change direction at any time.

"We are at a time when we have to take the opportunity to prepare for the next waves," says López Acuña, who insists on maintaining the measures in place to delay the rise as much as possible, which in Spain would be the fourth wave.

The longer it takes, the more vulnerable people will be vaccinated and the fewer lives will be claimed.

This is unlikely to happen in time to low- and middle-income countries.

Even among the wealthiest in Latin America, such as Argentina and Chile, the coming winter can still do a lot of damage, in Trujillo's opinion.

The new variants of the coronavirus also advise prudence.

"If we lift our foot with the restrictions, they can spread quickly," warns Elvis García.

Current evidence shows that the British variant is more contagious than the others and that the South African and Brazilian variants may respond worse to vaccines.

All this, added to the uncertainty in other areas of the world, prevents us from claiming victory.

The pandemic, to a greater or lesser extent, will surely accompany us throughout this year.

The challenge of global vaccination and genetic testing

Anyone who had doubts about the wisdom of the phrase "until we are all safe, no one will be safe", will probably have dispelled them with the appearance of new variants.

As much as the inhabitants of a country or region are vaccinated, if the coronavirus continues to spread, the chances that a mutation will compromise immunity or worsen the covid increase.

The next waves of the pandemic in the developed world will probably not be as painful as the previous ones thanks to vaccines, but their effectiveness is at risk.

Antonio Trujillo, from Johns Hopkins, insists that developed countries should have their sights set on guaranteeing access to immunizations throughout the world and improving the capacity of genetic analysis.

"As the virus mutates rapidly, we will only be able to control it if we strengthen the genetic epidemiology systems and analyze a good number of samples to find out where it is evolving," he stresses.

At the G7 leaders' first meeting with US President Joe Biden last Friday, rich countries pledged to double funding for low- and middle-income vaccination to a total of $ 7 billion ( more than 6,189 million euros).

But the truth is that the doses will not reach the poorest countries en masse until the majority of the citizens of the rich have been immunized.