For experts we are already in the second wave of coronavirus: what measures must be taken to minimize the impact

Irene Hartmann

03/27/2021 5:45 PM

• Clarín.com

• Society

Updated 03/27/2021 5:47 PM

“The increase in cases in the AMBA, although slow, is sustained over time and there is no event or change in behavior that could explain it.

The most plausible conclusion is that

we are in the second wave

of coronavirus ”.

If the epidemiological data are conclusive,

Rodrigo Quiroga

is categorical.

They are these: "Comparing the last 7 days with the scenario 20 days ago, we are seeing a

48% increase

in new cases of Covid in the metropolitan area."

Quiroga watches the pandemic from Córdoba.

He is a chemist, researcher at Conicet-UNC and specializes in Molecular Biology and Bioinformatics.

This Friday, coronavirus cases skyrocketed, with the highest number since January 14: 12,936 across the country.

This Saturday, as it usually happens on weekends, the Ministry of Health of the Nation reported a slight drop: 10,338 positives. 

The second wave, Quiroga remarked, is not a future scenario but a current one, but we have

time to redirect it

.

This diagnosis was shared by two other experts who spoke with

Clarín

:

Javier Farina

, infectious disease doctor of the Argentine Society of Infectious Diseases (SADI) and a meticulous follower of the curves of the pandemic, and

Diego Pereyra

, medical coordinator of the Intensive Care Unit del Sanatorio Güemes, one of the two Buenos Aires private health centers that (with the Italian Hospital) received

more Covid patients in this long year

.

For Pereyra, to such an extent we are in the second wave, that they wait for the greatest tension

(the peak)

to

in

about four to five weeks

.

He does not say it but a predictor system that they use in Güemes, a donation from the engineer Fredi Vivas, an entrepreneur of the Rockindata company.

"The algorithm, based on what it learned from the curves throughout the year and the different restrictions implemented that we are informing it, expects

a situation similar to June or July of last year

for the

end of April or the beginning of May

, when we had the peak of income ”, warned Pereyra.

The X-ray shared by the three experts has a couple of central elements.

The first are the figures for recent weeks, which have risen

slowly but steadily since the beginning of March

, and which were well summarized this Thursday when almost 1,400 new infections were reported for CABA, and for the province of Buenos Aires, more than 3,700 .

There are those who instead of "second wave" prefer to say "

third

", considering the steep curve a couple of weeks after the December Holidays.

But Farina said that "it was a growth 15 days after the Holidays, which at that time was self-limited."

This can be seen in the charts: the December rise falls sharply, but this curve that begins to rise promises to be a true second wave, a "mountain" wider in time.

v 1.5

The AMBA and the second wave

New cases of coronavirus in the city and province of Buenos Aires have grown at a slow pace, but sustained since the beginning of March.

»Cases per day per million inhab.

7 day average

Source:

Ministry of Health

Infographic:

Clarín

Social behavior

What matters (and this is the other central element) is that experience has taught that the new rise in cases will not limit itself just like that because

there is no specific event linked to the rise of the curve

.

The effects, meanwhile, can be bad or directly very bad, depending on how everything was approached.

And it

does not depend on luck but on social behavior

.

Although the largest numbers of infections occur (the same as last year) in the most populated districts of the country (according to Farina, “it makes no sense, again, to speak of a national wave but rather that it occurs in a regionalized way”), provinces such as

Salta, Tucumán, Santiago del Estero, San Juan, Mendoza, Santa Fe and Tierra del Fuego

 also experience slow rises that are less noticeable because they are smaller populations, Quiroga detailed.

The national scenario is that since a) there is a “plateau” of Covid cases in almost the entire country, b) risk activities are open, and c) social mobility unfolds without contraction,

infections will sooner or later rise everywhere

.

Unless something is done about it.

The image is of someone standing in

front of a forking trail

, the three experts suggested.

"The impact of this second wave will depend on individual behaviors, the restrictions and measures taken by the leaders and the increase in the percentage of vaccinated," Farina analyzed.

The latter is not minor, since "although vaccination is not going to influence the numbers of infections, it could have a positive impact on a

decrease in fatality

".

They are key hours.

According to Quiroga, “in the AMBA, the increase in cases is worrying enough to

cancel high-risk activities

, indoors.

We cannot have open cinemas or bars or restaurants, gyms or churches.

They have to operate outside doors ”.

From now on, he admitted, "they are the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic", but - he analyzed - "unfortunately, any economic cost will be less than the cost of a total closure in the future."

Possible measures

The gesture at this time should be towards taking "

specific restrictive measures

, in order to avoid more severe ones later."

The minutes run.

According to Quiroga, “the limited measures only make sense if they are taken on time.

Otherwise, they will not have a significant impact. "

If he could decide, Pereyra would implement as soon as possible “

quarantines by sector

, by zone.

It would detect where the cases come from, evaluate the vaccinated population in that sector and determine partial closures by neighborhoods. "

In addition, "it would implement

closures for hours

, especially at night to avoid clandestine parties and careless meetings. It would

let the bars pass the tables to the streets

and change the vaccination strategy: it would not go exclusively to older adults but would prioritize adults, in general, with comorbidities ”.

And the schools?

This is an awkward debate.

For Quiroga, at the national level there are about "

5 or 6 infected for each Covid that is confirmed

."

But in CABA (one of the jurisdictions where more tests are done) the calculation is different: “There are more or less 3 infected for each positive adult.

But in

boys

, who are mostly asymptomatic, there would be

between 8 and 10 infections that we do not see for each positive

.

However, the expert clarified the issue: the problem is not in the school blended attendance but in the fact that closures have not been adopted in other risky activities, such as "

to compensate

."

What steps would he take?

“Evening restrictions and

limit meetings to a maximum of 10 people

.

Computer models say that this is one of the most effective measures.

As long as it is fulfilled, from now on.

Here a very important cultural factor is at stake ”.

Ultimately, the individual factor and official cunning are put into play again.

For Pereyra, "the second wave will surely have the same impact as last year, but we are more prepared and calmer." The fact is, "the medical personnel are vaccinated.

In 2020 we had to fly a plane blindly. "

ACE

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