According to the latest Euromedia Research poll (29-30 August)
published on the front page by La Stampa, the voting intentions 25 days before the elections indicate
that Fratelli d'Italia would get 24.6%, doubling in consensus compared to the League that would stop at 12.5%.
Just below the party of Giorgia Meloni, the Democratic Party which would have 23.1%.
Action-Italia Viva would reach 7.4% while Forza Italia would be at 7% and the alliance between the Greens and the Italian Left on 3.1%.
Noi Moderati di Lupi is attributed 2%, + Europa di Bonino-Della Vedova 1.5%, 1% to Civic Commitment of Di Maio.
The center-right area would thus obtain 46.1% of the consensus against 28.7% of the center-left area.
While the Five Star Movement would grow by 3.1% compared to the last survey of 22 July, rising to 12.3%.
The survey also accredits Italexit di Gialuigi Paragone by 2.8%.
35.4% of the voters interviewed are still undecided, a percentage that drops by only 1.4% compared to forty days ago.
Those who do not yet know if they will vote are 23.8% of the undecided, those who do not know which political force to vote make up 76.2% of the undecided.
The survey shows that for the Italians interviewed, the new government will have to address the issue of prices and inflation as a priority (47.4%);
the energy crisis (45.7%);
work and employment (40.5%).
However, pessimism prevails over the possibility that the executive that will come out of the polls can obtain significant results on the various emergencies.
In particular, there is mistrust on the labor and employment front (37.3%).
While on the solutions to the energy crisis 35.5% respond with pessimism.
'The advantage over the center-left hypothesized today by the polls would project the center-right towards a clear parliamentary majority, not far from the two-thirds majority'.
This is what emerges from a
study prepared
by
YouTrend
carried out starting from the
current supermedia of the surveys and from the analysis of the margins of error of the individual surveys
.
Based on 10,000 simulations carried out by YouTrend, the center-right with the current advantage photographed by the polls, i.e. 18.8% over the center-left on average, would obtain a majority between 240 and 265 seats in the House and between 120 and 135 in the Senate, to one step away from a two-thirds majority (set at 267 and 138 seats, respectively).
'As long as there is no clear reduction in the gap between center-right and center-left at the national level, the disproportionate effect of the colleges produces a large majority for the center-right,' explains YouTrend director Lorenzo Pregliasco.
In the YouTrend simulation, in particular, the center-right begins to see its majority questioned only if the national advantage over the center-left becomes less than 8-9%.
Below that threshold, in fact, scenarios of 'hung parliament' begin to emerge, that is, of a Parliament without any majority.
On the contrary, the 'super-majority' of two thirds in both Houses, necessary to change the Constitution without the need for a confirmatory referendum,