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KMK prognosis: the number of students will increase significantly
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dpa/dpaweb
According to calculations by the federal states, almost one million more children and young people will be taught in Germany's schools in the mid-2030s than today.
The number of students could therefore increase from the current 10.8 million to 11.7 million in 2035.
This emerges from a forecast presented by the Conference of Ministers of Education (KMK) on Friday.
The KMK justified the development with "recently steadily increasing birth rates" and immigration.
The projections are regularly updated and published by the KMK.
They are the basis for calculations on the development of teacher requirements.
The ministers of education presented a forecast in the spring, according to which the acute shortage of staff in schools will continue in 2035, but not in all types of schools.
Rising student numbers are repeatedly mentioned as one of the reasons for the shortage of teachers.
The current figures refer to the period 2021 to 2035.
Strong growth in the city-states
Compared to the last forecast, the expected increase in the number of students is slightly smaller.
According to the current forecast, a strong increase in the number of schoolchildren is expected, particularly in the city states of Hamburg, Berlin and Bremen.
The KMK announced that it was growing "significantly" by 11.7 percent.
A strong increase of 10.2 percent is also expected in western Germany.
In 2035, the number of students here could be 9.3 million.
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In the eastern German federal states, on the other hand, after an increase up to the end of this decade, there is likely to be a slight decrease in the number of pupils compared to today.
While the number of pupils here in 2021 was just under 1.48 million, according to the KMK forecast it will rise steadily, albeit slightly, to 1.55 million by 2027.
In 2035 it is said to have fallen again to 1.45 million.
As student numbers increase, so does the number of young people who are ready for the job market.
In times of a shortage of young people in many sectors, this could bring some relief, at least in the long term.
According to the KMK, the number of graduates is expected to increase from 771,000 to 863,000 at general schools and from 924,000 to 957,000 at vocational schools.
The number of graduates with a technical college or university entrance qualification could rise from 397,000 to 448,000.
However, according to the forecast, the number of young people with low qualifications and comparatively poor chances on the labor market is also increasing.
In 2035, 50,000 young people could leave general education schools without a secondary school leaving certificate - that would be 7.2 percent or almost 3,400 young people more than in 2021.
fok/AFP/dpa