(ANSA) - ROME, SEPTEMBER 17 - "Record gas prices, higher inflation rates: difficult context in the second half of 2022 The scenario turns downwards".
Thus the Confindustria Study Center in its Congiuntura flash where it is emphasized that "the resilience of industry is on the ropes, after too many months of the impact of expensive energy on business margins: investments will suffer".
According to Csc, "record inflation erodes household income and threatens consumption, protected (in part and not for long) by accumulated savings and taxes raised by the ECB" will give a further recessionary impulse ". Italian economy could be up to 3.2% of GDP in the two-year period from 2022 to 23. The estimate of the Confidustria Study Center is obtained with two simulations.
up to the end of 2023 at 235 € / mwh (average value in August) the impact for the Italian economy (compared to the average price of 99 euros in the first 6 months of 2022) is estimated at a lower GDP growth of 2.2%.
With the price at € 298 / mwh (the average level expected from futures) the reduction in the two-year period would be 3.2%.
With, in the two scenarios, 383 thousand and 582 thousand less employed.
(HANDLE).
