A nursery in a hospital in Germany: Western European countries are shrinking in population size (Photo: GettyImages)
The world's population, which is approaching 8 billion people, has become a troubling issue over the years that occupies many international economists, who call for reducing the world's population in "conventional" or "unconventional" ways.
According to them, population growth causes, among other things, greenhouse gas emissions, which could harm the world economy. A ridiculous claim in itself, but enough to frighten entire nations around the world – and to hold an "emergency conference" dealing with the subject of the expected "population explosion" in Israel in the coming decades.
For the United Nations, one of the organizations that dictate world and economic orders, and one of the most prominent factors that did the impossible and succeeded in entering a woman's womb, as global population growth continues, it creates possible complications in the fight against climate change.
We'll do some tidying up
Last year, the United Nations Population Department (UNPD) predicted that India would replace China as the world's most populous country. India, for that matter, today boasts about 1.41 billion people and China's population stands at 1.43 billion. So while China's population peaked in 2022, India expects the country to peak in terms of population by 2064 – unless the UN intervenes.
Since 2016, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), together with the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), has launched a global initiative to tackle childbirth in 12 countries where child and adolescent marriage is prevalent. The initiative included Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Uganda, Yemen and Zambia.
The purpose of the UN is not to address the socio-moral problem prevailing in these countries, but to limit the scope of the population. The UN activity succeeded, in a big way, it can be said, since the UN report published last year indicates that there has been a significant decline in the birth rate of adolescents in Central and South Asia.
Japanese baby: Is Japan in danger of extinction? (Photo by GettyImages)
As far as the UN is concerned, a desirable and sustained fertility rate is such that the number of children born to one woman is only 2.1. Meeting such a goal, they believe, is necessary "to achieve stability in the population." India led the significant declines in the birth rate among adolescents, where the fertility rate fell from 116 per 1,000 women to 43 per 1,000 women.
Compared to the fertility rate held by the state in the mid-90s, which stood at 3.4 children per woman (similar to Israel), today the fertility rate in India stands at only 2 children per woman, even below the UN recommended fertility figure. For India and the UN, this is an impressive achievement, especially in light of the fact that in the 60s, the country faced a rapidly growing population that maintained a fertility rate that stood at almost 6 children per woman on average.
"China may fall economically if some miracle of productivity does not occur for it"
Back to China: In 1979, the country promoted "population control" through its birth control program and one-child policy. China feared a population explosion at the time, as from the 50s to the late 60s, the country's population grew by 20 million people annually!!!
Since the one-child policy, the Chinese Communist Party has worried that its population is shrinking too rapidly, and may age before it can get rich. As such, beginning in 2015, China began to change its policy of allowing parents to have two children. It recently changed its fertility policy again and now allows the birth of three children in a family.
China does have cause for concern. A country that has pursued persistent policies and worked to significantly reduce its population could fail economically unless some "fertility miracle" occurs, according to Charles Goodhart professor emeritus at the Charles Goodhart School of Economics at London, and co-author of the Great Demographic Revolution. It is estimated that China's population rate is expected to decline by about 6 million annually. "If you look at the world map of the countries that are going to shrink in population size, it basically starts in central Europe and goes east to Japan past Russia and China," Wilmot said.
Aging population
Fears in China apply to all Western countries, such as continental Europe, North America, East and South Asia. Beyond the low fertility rate in Western countries, the coronavirus and other epidemics have not helped the situation either, and according to a UN update published last year, since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%.
The UN estimates that between 2020 and 2021, there were 15 million deaths worldwide due to the COVID-744 pandemic. Europe's population, for example, shrank by 000,2020 people in 1 and 4.2021 million in 1950. The decline in the European population began since 2100 due to rising deaths, migration, epidemics and low fertility rates, so it is now expected that Europe's population will continue to decline until 2080.
Despite the slowdown in the birth rate, it is expected that by the end of 10 the world's population will reach 4.197 billion people, and only then will it begin to decline. All those who cluck their tongues at reducing the birth rate should understand that this has a huge economic impact. Perhaps not to countries like India, or China, which still boasts the title of "having the highest population in the world," but to Western countries, where today, out of the world's 69 countries, <> of them have targets to reduce the birth rate.
India: Western countries look at them with admiration and want to encourage immigration to their country (Photo: ShutterStock)
Global demographic data are directly related to the economy. Human capital is one of the foundations on which the national security of every country stands. It was found that the stability of countries is liable to be undermined in light of the demographic changes they undergo in their population sectors. For example, the world's population is expected to age and is expected to reach one billion people aged 65 and over by 2030 and 1.6 billion by 2050. By 2030, the percentage of people aged 65 and over in East and South Asia will double from 13% to 26%. In Europe and North America, nearly 19% of the population is aged 65 or older, and this proportion is expected to rise to nearly 27% by 2050.
This issue poses political-political challenges in those countries that fear economic stagnation. Some agonize and speak in one breath about an extraordinary solution: encouraging immigration! Alongside calls to encourage "frontalism" - birth rate and natural growth!! Who would have believed.
This means that, on the one hand, international experts, including the United Nations, are concerned about the presence of 8 billion people in the world who are "wreaking havoc on the planet," and on the other hand, panicking about rising aging rates and a decline in the birth rate, which will lead to an economic slowdown and the erosion of civilization. In Japan, by the way, there are those who have already begun to talk about the possible extinction of the "race".
A situation has arisen in which there is a race around the world to secure "demographic dividends" fast and fast before the decline in birth rates drags out the "immigrants" and deteriorates economic growth.
How do you do it? Already, Western countries, in Europe, and the United States are looking hopefully towards the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where tremendous growth is expected. These are mainly the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. These countries are expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the next 30 years, creating what UN officials call a "demographic dividend."
Western countries look with admiration at India and other "Asian and African tigers" and want to encourage immigration to their country. It should only be taken into account that the positive migration of young people from non-democratic countries to them is not expected to help their economic future, but rather to bring about a change in their character, which is already taking place, and constitutes a crisis in almost every country.
Free the woman
The story of declining birth rates is ultimately a story of women's liberation, of a "hostile takeover" by officials, international actors who carry the title of "experts" to control a woman's womb, and family size.
The danger comes when countries that are beginning to lose demographic ground begin to exert unacceptable pressure on women to have children, or vice versa, depending on government policy. Both India and China have sought for decades to control fertility: India was the first country in the world to have a national family planning policy that it launched in 1952, while China implemented its one-child policy in the early 80s.
Both countries have imposed cruel policies, all for "development purposes." In Turkey, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned family planning and called on mothers to take responsibility if they have many children. The international approach advocates reducing or encouraging births only if it contributes to the country's economy, referring to humans as a "factor of production."
Where is Israel in all this?
Israel is a unique country among Western countries demographically and is characterized by an exceptional combination of high fertility, low mortality and positive migration – all of which lead to rapid population growth. As of 2022, there are about 9.72 million residents in Israel, and over the past decade the number of residents has increased by about 2 million people.
According to the forecast of the Central Bureau of Statistics, in 2032, Israel's population will be about 11.3 million, and in 40 years from now, Israel's population is expected to double to more than 18 million.
If we add to this Israel's good economic situation, compared to other countries, and the increasing manifestations of anti-Semitism around the world, it can be assumed that the flow of immigration to Israel will increase in the coming decade. To illustrate, this is an addition of more than four cities with the same number of residents as Tel Aviv. This is a growth rate of about 200,1 residents per year (about 8.<>% on average per year).
As far as Israel is concerned, the high rate of natural growth constitutes an economic springboard, especially if Israel's unproductive populations, Haredim and Arabs, who also have many children, take part in the economic and social burden, which has begun to occur in Haredi society.
In the meantime, it can be said that the State of Israel is enjoying a golden age in almost every way. The economy is booming, with an average annual growth rate of more than 3.5 percent over the past decade. The rate of national debt (relative to GDP) is significantly lower than that of the US; The unemployment rate is close to zero; Inflation in Israel is lower than in Western countries and the standard of living is constantly rising, and the high-tech revolution has catapulted Israel to the forefront of global technology, its unique innovative spirit attracts investors from all over the world.
At the same time, the Jewish state has signed peace agreements with Arab League countries and continues to deepen its cooperation with other Arab countries. Other countries, such as the United States, China, Japan, India, Europe and Brazil, and almost every country in Europe, see Israel as a strategic partner. Israel is ultimately an amazing success story.
There is much more to be done, much to fix, so that the small citizen of Israel will feel all this "goodness." What is certain is that when looking at what is happening towards our neighbors, Western countries and Asia, in Israel the discourse on population growth should be "challenging" and not treat it as an "emergency" (as is happening today).
We are already proving that countries on all continents of the world are looking for Israel not only to supply them with "natural gas" or "weapons," but they are interested in the human capital that exists here.
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