The atmosphere was festive at the Élysée Palace on January 5. Far from the tumult of the reshuffle that was to occupy the news of the following days, the President of the Republic received representatives of the baker and pastry profession for the traditional galette des rois. As every year, not a single bean was hidden in the imposing cake, which did not prevent the head of state from throwing a few laurels at himself. "We have collectively achieved a real French cultural revolution in recent years. It's about learning," he said during his speech. In passing, the executive unveiled an initial estimate of the number of new contracts signed in 2023, which should be around 860,000.
Behind this idyllic picture, however, this figure shows a worrying decline. The past year exceeds 2022 only by.. 3% for the number of apprenticeship arrivals. By comparison, the jump over the previous twelve months had been 14%. Suddenly, Emmanuel Macron's promise to see one million young people enter this sector each year straddling school and business by 2027 is taking a hit. The threshold may never even be reached. "Flows have reached a form of equilibrium and should stabilise," predicts Yannick L'Horty, a labour economist and professor at Gustave Eiffel University. According to him, it is difficult to go much further. With 850,000 signatures, the number of entries already exceeds the population of an estimated age group of 750,000 individuals. Finding the 250,000 extra individuals each year is therefore a challenge... of prowess.
A different perspective on learning
Not enough to impress the President of the Republic. "We're going to reach the million we set out to target," he said. Whether it is or not, "the important thing is not there," says Yannick L'Horty, "what is important is that apprenticeship has become a real tool in employment policy." This course, still presented as a siding less than ten years ago, has indeed earned these letters of nobility. In 2016, fewer than 300,000 contracts were signed each year, according to Dares, the vast majority of which were in the infra-bac sector. Since then, training centers have spread throughout France and even the most prestigious institutions such as HEC, offer it to their students. It's a win-win situation.
The student can earn an income, get better training and have easier access to a long-term contract. With the subsidies, the company pays almost nothing to its employee in the first year and at the end of the course can hire a person who already knows the job. Finally, public accounts finance springboards to employment instead of unemployment benefits, and those at a lower cost. "The budgetary cost of an apprenticeship position is around €20,000. This is significantly less than many other subsidized contracts," says Yannick L'Horty.
These successes should not make us forget that this policy of support for apprenticeships still has weaknesses. Due to its size, it weighs heavily on public finances. "€16.8 billion for the work-study policy alone" in 2022 according to the Court of Auditors. The system, which was originally supposed to be financed exclusively by the business tax paid by companies, is thus heavily in deficit despite state subsidies. In its provisional budget for 2023, France Compétences, the regulatory body for vocational training and work-study programs, expects a deficit of 2.1 billion euros, after 4.6 billion in 2020 and 2.9 billion in 2021.
It also deserves to be more focused on the least qualified profiles who take advantage of this training more to move towards employment. "The rate of integration with apprenticeship is 10 to 15 points higher for these profiles, and it decreases as the studies increase. At the master's level, the difference is almost insignificant," explained Antoine Foucher, president of Quintet and former chief of staff to former Labour Minister Muriel Pénicaud. Currently, 62% of apprentices have post-baccalaureate profiles. Maybe that's what the President of the Republic should focus on from now on, more than the million admissions per year.