The cut in the contribution wedge and the tax reform push consumption in 2024 with household spending expected to be worth 5.6 billion more, about half of the expected overall growth (+10.9 billion). This is calculated by the CER for Confesercenti. The report points out that households' propensity to save is at its lowest level in 35 years and that "consumption has 'saved' growth in 2023 and will be key again this year". The outlook, however, "remains uncertain: without the confirmation of the measures for next year as well, in 2025 GDP growth will stop at +0.8%".
The tax relief measures and the reshaping of tax rates will reduce the tax burden by half a point, from 42.2% to 41.7%, giving households the space they need to increase spending. As a result of these interventions, according to the research, "consumption will increase by 1% in the current year, slowing down compared to 2023, but still twice as much as would have been recorded in the absence of the budget law. In absolute terms, the change is equal to +10.9 billion in the year, of which +5.6 billion attributable to the measures of the maneuver: 3.1 billion from the cut of the wedge and 2.5 billion from that of the rates". Thanks to the higher increase in consumption, "GDP growth in 2024 would reach 0.9%, slightly accelerating over 2023".
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