Last updated: 13.01.2024, 05:35 a.m.
By: Sarah Isele
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Since the 17th century, the 100-year calendar has been used to predict the weather. There are also forecasts for 2024. What will the weather be like throughout the year?
The year 2023 was humid and cold until the middle of the year. This was followed by a few hot summer days, temperatures around -10 degrees in December with a sudden onset of winter at the beginning of the month and then mild Christmas and New Year's Eve. After a changeable 2023, the question arises: What will the weather be like in 2024? The 100-year calendar already gives an outlook for the whole year:
What is the 100-year calendar?
The "100-year calendar" is a compilation of weather forecasts written in the 17th century by Mauritius Knauer, the abbot of Langheim Abbey. This calendar was intended to help him and his monks predict the weather in Franconia and thus optimize the monastery's agriculture. Knauer based his work on astrological ideas and was based on the idea, which was controversial among astrologers at the time, that the celestial bodies Moon, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus and Mercury influence the weather in a fixed cycle for one year from the beginning of spring to the end of winter.
Based on these assumptions, the abbot derived a 7-year cycle in which the weather would repeat itself. Later, the calendar was continued by Dr. Christoph Hellweg from Thuringia and was given the name "100-year calendar". The calendar continues to this day, but the forecasts it contains are no longer tenable from a meteorological point of view.
Weather in Germany 2024: A solar year according to the 100-year calendar
What will the weather look like in 2024 after the disappointing weather year 2023? Basically, it is still too early to make an accurate forecast for the entire year, as most forecasts are no more than two weeks into the future. Nevertheless, some bold models are daring to take a first look at 2024 – including the 100-year calendar.
According to this, the weather in 2024 will be dominated by the sun. From the beginning to the end of the year, solar years promise more dryness than moisture and moderate warmth overall. The last solar year was 2017, which was characterized by severe dry periods. Contrary to the forecasts of meteorologists, the predictions of the 100-year calendar remain unchanged. Therefore, his predictions are particularly interesting in the face of climate change.
Weather 2024 according to the 100-year calendar
Normally, the predictions of the 100-year calendar go from March to March of the following year. However, for practical reasons, the calendar is often applied to the classic calendar year. The forecast for the whole of 2024 is as follows, according to the 100-year calendar:
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- Weather in spring: Spring in 2024 starts with fairly humid weather and is well tempered. In the unstable April, however, it is already summery warm. May is expected to start with nice and dry weather. In the end, however, there is frost again. The frost then lasts well into June. Therefore, caution should also be exercised when animals are standing outdoors in the pasture.
- Weather in summer: Even in June there can still be frost. Otherwise, the summer is very dry in the sunny year. August starts with unsettled and uncomfortable weather, then it gets warm again. The days are very hot, but the nights are rather cool.
- Weather in autumn: Autumn begins with dry and beautiful weather, but the first frost arrives just in time. The cold is moderate, but the weather is harsh. But then it gets a little better again. During the day it is still nice and warm.
- Weather in winter: Winter is more dry than wet. However, it is quite cold, but not too cold. It starts with quite bad and cold weather, which will soon improve again. February will bring pleasant and mild weather at first, but towards the end it will bring great cold again. This will remain in place until March.
Weather forecast for 2024: 100-year calendar not scientifically justified
If the 100-year calendar is to be believed, 2024 is expected to see changeable weather, characterized by moderate, high and low temperatures. After all, it is supposed to stay mostly dry. Whether these predictions come true remains to be seen. According to meteorologists, it is almost impossible to predict the weather over a period of more than two weeks. However, the changes in climate can be predicted by scientists in the long term.
Even though the 100-year calendar was created on the basis of years of weather observations, it is not a scientific basis for making firm statements about the weather. Therefore, the DWD also warns against giving too much credence to this calendar. (rah)
This article has been edited with machine support and carefully checked by editor Stefan Winterbauer before publication.