A scenario of the Third World War outlined in times and movements, complete with figures of military mobilization, actions of "hybrid warfare" and development on the ground month after month. It culminated in the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the outbreak of conflict between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance in the summer of 2025. This is the dystopia contained in a "secret document" of the German Defense Ministry revealed by Bild that outlines in detail a possible "path to conflict" between Vladimir Putin and NATO.
A disturbing prospect, which the Kremlin branded as "a hoax" while a spokesman for Berlin's Defense was quick to define part of "extremely unlikely scenarios" resulting from daily military activity, especially for training. Much more concrete - and threatening for Moscow - is the confirmation that 'Steadfast Defender' is about to kick off on the Russian borders, the largest NATO exercise since the end of the Cold War to which London will contribute 20,000 men together with forces from "all 31 allies and Sweden", an Alliance spokesman told ANSA.
More information on the manoeuvres will emerge after the meeting of the Allied Chiefs of Staff this week in Brussels. Meanwhile, it is already known that the maneuvers will
be held in the Germany-Poland-Baltic quadrant where the Suwalki Corridor is located, the narrow Polish-Lithuanian land passage between Belarus and Kaliningrad among the weakest points of the alliance with respect to a possible Russian offensive.
This is no small detail considering that the top-secret document revealed by Bild refers to this corridor as the Kremlin's real target. The scenario outlined by the Bundeswehr is entitled 'Defense Alliance 2025', writes the German newspaper, and starts in February 2024, with a recall to service of another 200,000 Russian servicemen followed by "a spring offensive with important successes by June." In July, there is speculation of "heavy cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare" and Russian incitement by its own ethnic minorities in the Baltic to launch a large-scale maneuver called 'Zapad 2024', with 50,000 troops in western Russia and Belarus starting in September. From December 2024 there would be a "border conflict" while "the United States could be leaderless
for a few weeks" following Joe Biden's possible electoral defeat. In the report, NATO decides on "credible deterrence measures" in May 2025 to prevent a Russian attack on the Suwalki Corridor and, on an "X day", orders the deployment of 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, to confront more than 200,<> Russians.
"Whether Russia will be deterred from NATO deployment remains an open question in the exercise scenario," Bild said. Far-fetched, of course, but the German document shows that an active conflict between the Allies and Putin's Russia cannot be ruled out, while there is still no room for a diplomatic solution. From Switzerland, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Bern has offered to host a "peace summit" at the leader's level, also hoping for the
participation of Putin's ally China. But the Ukrainian peace formula follows principles that are unacceptable to Moscow's expansive pretensions. Thus, fighting continues on the ground, with Kyiv claiming to have shot down two Russian military aircraft, an A-50 long-range radar detection and an Il-22, in a "successful" operation, the Ukrainian Air Force said.
"Ukraine has the potential to win," Zelensky reiterated, trying to show optimism while doubts remain about aid from Western countries. The American funds
have run out, and the US Congress and the EU have not yet given the go-ahead for the billions in key military support for Kiev's resistance against the invasion.
With time inexorably passing, Zelensky will try in Davos - meeting leaders and CEOs - to find those certainties that will serve to give new impetus to the Ukrainian military initiative on the thousand kilometers of war front.
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