As of: January 20, 2024, 5:35 a.m
By: Sarah Isele
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Split
The 100-year calendar has been used to predict the weather since the 17th century.
There are also forecasts for 2024.
What is the weather like throughout the year?
The year 2023 was wet and cold until the middle of the year.
This was followed by a few hot summer days, temperatures around -10 degrees in December with a sudden onset of winter at the beginning of the month and then mild Christmas and New Year's Eve.
After a changeable 2023, the question arises: What will the weather be like in 2024?
The 100-year calendar already provides an outlook for the whole year:
The 100-year calendar – what is it?
The “100-year calendar” is a compilation of weather forecasts that was written in the 17th century by Mauritius Knauer, the abbot of Langheim Monastery.
This calendar was intended to help him and his monks to predict the weather in Franconia and thus optimize the monastery's agriculture.
Knauer relied on astrological ideas and was based on the idea, which was also controversial among astrologers at the time, that the celestial bodies Moon, Saturn, Jupiter, Mars, Sun, Venus and Mercury determine the weather in a fixed cycle for a year from the beginning of spring to the end of winter influence.
Based on these assumptions, the abbot derived a 7-year cycle in which the weather should repeat itself.
Later the calendar was created by Dr.
Christoph Hellweg from Thuringia continued it and was given the name “100-year calendar”.
The calendar continues to this day, but the forecasts it contains are no longer tenable from a meteorological point of view.
Weather in Germany 2024: According to the 100-year calendar, a solar year
What will the weather look like in 2024 after the disappointing weather year of 2023?
In principle, it is still too early to make an accurate forecast for the entire year, as most forecasts extend at most two weeks into the future.
Nevertheless, some brave models dare to take a first look at 2024 - including the 100-year calendar.
According to this, the weather in 2024 will be dominated by the sun.
Sunny years therefore promise more dryness than moisture and overall moderate warmth from the beginning to the end of the year.
The last solar year was 2017, which was characterized by severe dry periods.
Contrary to the forecasts of meteorologists, the forecasts of the 100-year calendar remain unchanged.
Therefore, his predictions are particularly interesting in the face of climate change.
Weather 2024 according to the 100-year calendar
Typically, 100-year calendar predictions run from March to March of the following year.
However, for practical reasons the calendar is often applied to the classic calendar year.
The forecast for the entire year 2024 according to the 100-year calendar is as follows:
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Spring weather:
Spring in 2024 will start with fairly humid weather and a pleasant temperature.
In the unsettled April it is already warm as summer.
May is expected to start with nice and dry weather.
In the end, however, there is frost again.
The frost then lasts well into June.
Caution is therefore advised when animals are grazing outdoors.
Weather in summer:
There can still be frost even in June.
Otherwise, summer is very dry in the solar year.
August begins with unsettled and uncomfortable weather, then it gets warm again.
The days are very hot, but the nights are rather cool.
Weather in autumn:
Autumn begins with dry and fine weather, but the first frost arrives in time.
The cold is moderate, but the weather is harsh.
But then things get a little better again.
But it's still nice and warm during the day.
Weather in winter:
Winter is more dry than wet.
Quite cold, but not too cold.
It starts with pretty bad and cold weather, but it will improve again soon.
February initially brings pleasant and mild weather, but towards the end it will bring great cold again.
This will remain in effect until March.
Weather forecast for 2024: 100-year calendar not scientifically based
If the 100-year calendar is to be believed, 2024 is expected to experience changeable weather, characterized by moderate, high and low temperatures.
After all, it should stay mostly dry.
Whether these predictions are accurate remains to be seen.
According to meteorologists, forecasting the weather for a period longer than two weeks is almost impossible.
However, scientists can predict changes in the climate in the long term.
Even though the 100-year calendar was created on the basis of years of weather observations, it is not a scientific basis for making firm statements about the weather.
The DWD therefore warns against placing too much faith in this calendar.
(rah)
This article was edited with machine support and carefully checked by editor Stefan Winterbauer before publication.