Two scenarios could - perhaps - bring the Likud and the Bloc to the target: 61 seats. The first is a significant leap in voter turnout in traditional Likud power centers. The second concerns Jewish power: Most "power" voters in the September 2019 elections will probably vote for it in March 2020, too, although today it is clear to them, as it was then clear, that their party does not pass the blockade, that an election of 80,000 voters is not enough and will once again smash their party To the rocks.

Most power voters, unlike many voters in other parties, do not involve tactical or strategic consideration in their choice. They are ideologists and fanatics of their beliefs to such an extent that the question of the percentage of blocking is irrelevant to them. The main thing is the one truth, which must be spoken, which must be adhered to, and as far as they are concerned - "the world will die".

In spite of this, and perhaps because of this, Likud has a bad chance of taking the powerful people off the tree and persuading them not to run in the upcoming Knesset elections. The condition for this is a "sweet" ideological reconciliation package, significant and wide-ranging, on issues that are a powerful bird of mind that at least with some of it, most Likud people will be able to live in peace; Something that powerful people can come to their constituents and say to them: "It was worthwhile."

This is a series of decisions that the Likud refrained from making or making today, due to what is defined as "political sensitivity," or because these are decisions that could cripple the Palestinian state's fantasy.

If the Likud proves in the coming weeks with deeds - not verbal and idle decisions - that in exchange for a powerful retirement, it is ready to catapult Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria a few steps ahead: begin building "Hill of the Plane" and "E-1" areas, near Ma'aleh Adumim, to thaw The construction of a wall in Har Homa and, in effect, another Jewish neighborhood in frozen Hebron is likely to take a step back, if the Likud demolishes Khan al-Ahmer and other illegal Palestinian construction, and at the same time settles dozens of outposts and neighborhoods, whose very existence is now threatened - There is a chance to convince powerful people and their rabbis to give up this time.

First, the winds need to calm down a bit. Powerful people feel hurt and cheated. You can understand them. They were deceived. Deceived them. Then they must sit down with them and their rabbis to negotiate and conclude in a way that things will be done and seen on the ground. The understandings in this spirit will bring both electoral profit to the "bloc" and profit for anyone who would happen to Palestine to his heart and a Palestinian state is a bad dream for him.