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SPD candidate Scholz
Photo: Kay Nietfeld / picture alliance / dpa
Olaf Scholz and the SPD chairmen still have to work a little on the vote before the general election.
Otherwise there will be scenes like this Sunday evening: The chancellor candidate can be questioned on ARD, while Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans appear in front of the cameras in the party headquarters.
A mistake from the point of view of party strategists, but perhaps also indicative of the state of the party.
After the two state elections, the SPD vacillates between two extremes: clearly the strongest party in Rhineland-Palatinate thanks to Malu Dreyer.
And only just under double digits in Baden-Württemberg.
What, if you go, are the Social Democrats supposed to do with it now?
A mixed result, you could say.
But that's not how the game works after elections.
Scholz as well as Esken and Walter-Borjans celebrate the day as a success.
It was "a tailor-made prelude to the super election year," says Esken.
The SPD showed how to win elections.
Scholz says: "It's a good day." A government without the CDU is possible.
He wanted to become Chancellor, said Scholz, and that was when it became clear that “it is possible”.
Scholz has been a candidate for chancellor for more than half a year.
And suddenly his goal of leading the SPD back to the Chancellery after 16 years seems to be a little more realistic.
Because even if the SPD in Baden-Württemberg is only likely to get a good eleven percent and the Rhineland-Palatinate owes their victory largely to Malu Dreyer: The elections are actually sending out a signal that the Social Democrats have longed for: the traffic light.
Such an alliance has existed in Rhineland-Palatinate since 2016. And in future the SPD, Greens and FDP could also rule together in Baden-Württemberg - there, however, led by the Greens Winfried Kretschmann.
According to an ARD extrapolation on Sunday evening, it might even be enough for green-red in the Stuttgart state parliament.
Scholz sees himself on the upswing.
The Union is weakening, not only because of the scandals about MPs who have made money from mask deals.
The criticism of the corona crisis management by CDU ministers Jens Spahn and Peter Altmaier is also growing.
And now the traffic light signal.
But how realistic is a comeback of the SPD at the federal level?
Leading comrades have announced it many times.
But there was little movement in the polls, with the party still bobbing at 16 to 17 percent.
Malu Dreyer won twice as much.
Scholz does not have such high popularity ratings as she does.
But even more important: Dreyer, like Kretschmann, benefited from the official bonus.
Both prime ministers drew their party to results well above the national trend.
A development that has recently often occurred in state elections, but which could have been intensified by the corona pandemic.
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SPD chairman Walter-Borjans, Esken
Photo: HANNIBAL HANSCHKE / REUTERS
But it is also clear: Angela Merkel will not run again in the federal election.
The Social Democrats hope that Scholz could score as a candidate with the greatest experience in government.
Her goal is: push the Union below 30 percent, in the evening Scholz formulated exactly that as one of his electoral goals at »Anne Will«.
Then, so the assumption of the SPD strategists, the SPD could recapture the Chancellery.
The weakness of the Union makes this scenario no longer appear to be a mere pipe dream of the comrades.
But for Scholz to have a chance at all, his party would have to become a bit like the Rhineland-Palatinate state association.
However, the Federal SPD is far from its unity and professionalism.
Dispute over identity politics reveals predetermined breaking point
Although everyone celebrates as winners on Sunday, the atmosphere in the Willy-Brandt-Haus is not so euphoric.
The comrades actually believed they were on the right track.
The party appeared relatively closed in winter, together with Scholz, Esken and Walter-Borjans presented a draft program at the beginning of March in which both party leftists and conservative Social Democrats can be found.
But shortly afterwards it was about the unity and the SPD dealt with itself again. A public dispute broke out between Esken and Kevin Kühnert on the one hand and Gesine Schwan and Wolfgang Thierse on the other.
There is talk of a "catastrophe" among leading comrades, and there is great frustration.
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The debate about identity politics revealed a predetermined breaking point: What kind of party does the SPD want to be?
Do the comrades fight primarily for the socially disadvantaged or for minorities?
There are completely different ideas here between the traditional society and parts of the left.
And that could also make it more difficult for voters to see where they actually stand with the SPD.
How deep the conflict really goes is also shown by the fact that the party leadership, despite numerous efforts, did not manage to clear the dispute for days.
Scholz appeased that he had recently formulated an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, behind which everyone could gather.
But the conflict could break out again at any time.
A lasting agreement is difficult to imagine with the contentious SPD.
Attacks on the coalition partner, which Scholz has been driving more and more frequently since the beginning of the year, could help.
Party leader Walter-Borjans accused the Union on Sunday that the misconduct in the mask affair had a system.
"In parts of the CDU and CSU, the principle that one hand washes the other has come to light again and again," said Walter-Borjans of the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung".
The Union struck back directly.
CDU general secretary Paul Ziemiak accused the SPD leader of "despising thousands of CDU members in a rather brazen way."
This also makes one thing clear: the federal election campaign is in full swing.
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