In light of the progress in the negotiations for the historic peace agreement with Saudi Arabia, the Israeli defense establishment is accelerating the examination of its significance. Despite the enormous opportunity of the agreement, the details now known indicate that one of its derivatives is the supply of advanced weapons to the Saudis. This could undermine Israel's qualitative advantage and, even worse, undermine the "Begin Doctrine," i.e., allowing a country in the region to get its hands on nuclear weapons.
On the one hand, the benefits of the deal are enormous, and the Iranian context of the deal is also dramatic. Israel has a clear interest in creating a front with the countries of the region (headed by Saudi Arabia) against the Iranian nuclear program, especially since the agreement entails an American defense pact with Saudi Arabia, in which the US is expected to increase (again) its involvement in the region.
Official Israeli delegation in Saudi Arabia, led by Karai and Bitan // Credit: Spokesperson for the Minister of Communications
On the other hand, the Saudis do demand approval for a nuclear program for civilian purposes, but declare that if Iran has a military nuclear program, they too will be equipped with it. If Israel agrees to allow Saudi Arabia to get its hands on a nuclear program, it is not inconceivable that the move will open a nuclear arms race throughout the Middle East.
Senior defense officials have said in recent days that despite the grave concern, given the enormous advantages and opportunities of the emerging agreement with Saudi Arabia, at least a thorough and thorough examination is required. The goal is to try to hedge the risks and find a formula that, on the one hand, will not allow Saudi Arabia to advance toward a nuclear program, and on the other hand will give it the feeling that it is on its way there. In other words: feel without, but go without.
In contrast to the Abraham Accords formulated by Netanyahu without the involvement of the defense establishment, this time the defense establishment appreciates and hopes that the security position will carry heavy weight. However, some in the defense establishment fear that the recommendation will not be given due weight, since Netanyahu is pinning high hopes on the agreement with Saudi Arabia to the point of pulling him out of the deep quagmire in which he has been mired since his government began attempts to pass the legal reform. The concern is that the decisions that will be made will not only be pertinent.
Netanyahu and Trump signing the Abraham Accords (archive), photo: AFP
After months in which Netanyahu forbade his defense minister, Yoav Galant, from meeting with senior US administration officials in Washington, Galant will leave for Washington in about two weeks and meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The agreement with Saudi Arabia is expected to be one of the main topics of conversation, alongside Iran's nuclearization.
Washington is also aware of concerns about the agreement in American public opinion and hopes to calm the situation through external approval by the Netanyahu government. The Biden administration is counting on Netanyahu to provide a stamp of approval in Congress and legitimize the deal in the eyes of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. It is likely that the Biden administration will exert heavy pressure on Israel to legalize the deal.
Biden is literally counting on Netanyahu to provide a stamp of approval in Congress, Photo: AP
One can only hope that Netanyahu will give the defense establishment's position the appropriate weight and make his decisions based solely on practical considerations. The agreement with Saudi Arabia also has security implications that could dramatically affect Israel's future and even existence in the Middle East.
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