Unlike past campaigns, this time the IDF is not looking for a picture of victory in Gaza. While the heads of Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif would be a worthy achievement, it would not diminish the intensity of the blow Israel suffered on 7 October. The understanding that only the removal of Hamas' military wing and the cessation of its control over Gaza will complete the process shows that Israel has lost its innocence: this war is no longer a battle of hearts and minds, but a war for life and the future.
Documentation: Gazans make their way south | IDF Spokesperson
It is precisely against this background that we must not diminish the intensity of the images that emerged yesterday and yesterday from Gaza, of thousands of Palestinians marching south holding white flags. It is doubtful whether these pictures changed anything in the national mood in Israel, but on the Gaza street – and beyond, on the Palestinian and Arab streets – they were a real blow to the stomach. For them, this is a renewed Nakba, an updated version of the 1948 "catastrophe" in which they are once again losing their world.
The prevailing opinion in Israel is that Sinwar is still cruising on the euphoric clouds of the October 7 attacks. He sees himself as a modern Saladin, who managed to inflict on Israel the worst defeat in its history. What is happening now is the beginning of a process that may turn out to be a reversal of trend. Israel's pressure on Gaza creates real change – if it continues and even increases, the ink will tear through Sinwar's bunker walls and force him to make difficult decisions.
Hamas should be worried
In previous rounds of fighting, Israel also attacked Gaza furiously. The Gaza Strip remained in ruins after Cast Lead, Protective Edge and Guardian of the Walls, but none of them experienced population migration of this magnitude. This is the result of the intensity of the attacks now – more than 20,<> munitions dropped on Gaza in the past month – and the understanding that this time it is not just another round, but a decisive campaign.
Recalculate route, IDF force in Jenin during Guardian of the Walls,
The ground operation was intended to complement these attacks. It involves forces on an unusual scale, whose objective is to tighten the noose on Hamas. During the first ten days of the maneuver, some of the defense systems built by Hamas in and around Gaza were eroded, including some 150 tunnel shafts, along with numerous headquarters and weapons depots. The IDF deliberately maintains a fog of battle when it comes to the location of the forces, their movement, and even the extent of casualties, but if Sinwar and his men do manage to build a picture of the situation, they should be very worried.
At the current pace of progress, the IDF will be able to complete its takeover of the entire Gaza City area within a few days. It is forbidden to understand that Hamas will be defeated: it will still have tunnels, operatives and weapons (and of course the southern Gaza Strip, where Israel operated only from the air), but its effective control in the Gaza Strip will be greatly weakened.
Israel will then face several dilemmas, the most prominent of which is how to treat Shifa Hospital, which has already been officially designated by Israel as one of Hamas' main military headquarters. The dilemma is clear: such an action would make it clear that Israel does not intend to leave any corner of Gaza immune, and on the other hand, it could embroil Israel in the world over what would be perceived as an invasion of Gaza's main hospital.
The hunt will continue "months and years"
Following the completion of the takeover of Gaza City, the IDF will try to intensify its damage to Hamas infrastructure and its operatives. This is a process that could take weeks unless a different course of action is decided. Senior Israeli officials have already hinted that the IDF may redeploy and replace control on the ground with targeted or extensive raids as needed, with the aim of preventing Hamas from returning to northern Gaza.
The noose is tightening. Young people among the ruins of the city, photo: AFP
Subsequently, Israel will have to decide what to do with the southern Gaza Strip. If Hamas is unable to return to Gaza, its threat will be significantly reduced, certainly if Israel continues to attack it and its leaders from the air in the Khan Yunis and Rafah sectors as well. Israel has made it clear that its intention is to continue this hunt until the entire Hamas leadership is harmed, "even if it takes months and years," as a senior source put it.
The hope is that this combination of massive military pressure, together with the distress of the population, will overwhelm the Hamas leadership and lead to two processes: in the short term it will enable the advancement of a deal for the release of the hostages, and in the long term it will lead to a change of government in Gaza. In both cases, these are complex processes that will require difficult decisions on the Israeli side as well.
One of them is constantly on the agenda: agreeing to a certain lull in the fighting, in return for the release of some of the hostages. It seems that Israel may agree to this if the release is significant, provided that it is a lull in the fighting and not a ceasefire. This is based on the understanding that once the fire ceases, Israel will find it difficult to gain the international legitimacy required to renew it on the way to achieving the declared objectives of the campaign.
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