While Israel's eyes are on the fronts in Lebanon and Gaza, Iran is quietly tightening the "ring of fire" around Israel and building another front against it in northern Syria – Syria. During the 12-year civil war in Syria, Iran "imported" thousands of fighters (between 65,000 and 100,000 people) from various regions of the Far East, the Middle East, and Africa.
The Iranian Foreign Legion came to support Bashar al-Assad's survival efforts, and eventually, with the help of Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards, they managed to halt his chain of losses and regain control over many parts of the country.
Meanwhile, some of the militias have integrated into Assad's army with the intention of granting them legal status, legitimacy for action and protection against Israeli and American attacks.
Alongside the successes on the battlefield against the rebels, the Syrian-Iranian alliance, under cover of the war, worked to change the demographic balance. According to Assad, "the homeland does not belong to those who live in it nor to those who have a passport or citizenship – the homeland belongs to those who protect and protect it."
But Tehran was not satisfied with this. Its main goal was to create the "Shiite Crescent": territorial contiguity that stretches from Iran to Iraq, passes through Syria and ends in Lebanon and the Mediterranean. The elimination of ISIS in eastern Syria and the takeover of the long border with Iraq by the Syrian army opened the door to the success of the Iranian project. Since 2017, Iran has worked to establish Shiite outposts in eastern Syria by converting residents living in villages in the area, mostly taking advantage of their poor economic situation. They did so, among other things, in exchange for financial incentives ($300-800 a month for each fighter) and recruited them for the Assad regime's war effort. In the meantime, more and more pro-Iranian militias from Iraq continued to flow into Syria unhindered, until they made the Iranian presence in the country a fait accompli.
According to a report by the Turkish research institute Jusur, as of July 2023 there are 830 military sites of foreign forces in Syria - Russian, Turkish and American. Of these, Iran maintains 570 sites and bases: from the Iraqi-Syrian border in the east, through Aleppo in the north and the Syrian coast in the east, to Damascus and Daraa in the south. Some sites are used for security purposes, some for logistical purposes, and others for humanitarian assistance. However, it is clear that Iran is also exploiting its entrenchment for economic, cultural, and social aspects that have political influence in Syria.
According to a report by the Turkish research institute Jusur, as of July 2023 there are 830 military sites of foreign forces in Syria - Russian, Turkish and American. Of these, Iran maintains 570 sites and bases: from the Iraqi-Syrian border in the east, through Aleppo in the north and the Syrian coast in the east, to Damascus and Daraa in the south
Beyond all this, the main role of the Iranian presence in Syria is for its activity vis-à-vis the Americans, and especially for the opening of another front against Israel. For example, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (based in England) reported that since October 19, pro-Iranian militias have carried out about 40 airstrikes on American bases in Syria. Moreover, since the beginning of the war in Gaza, senior representatives of the pro-Iranian Shi'ite militias have arrived in Syria and Lebanon to collect intelligence and coordinate positions for a possible entry into the campaign. In addition, there have been increasing reports of reinforcement of Syrian army forces on the border with Israel and raising the alert level in this area, as well as a visit to Syria and Iraq by the commander of the Iranian Quds Force, Ismail Qaani.
Therefore, is another front about to open from Syria? All signs point to such a possibility, especially since it seems that just before the Lebanese front flares up, Tehran would rather throw its "foreign legion" into the battlefield than sacrifice Hezbollah on the altar of Hamas in Gaza. And what about Assad? After massacring Palestinians in Syria and expelling the Hamas leadership from Damascus, today he identifies with the "courageous Palestinian resistance." But having emerged bruised from a devastating war at home, it does not seem that he will agree to drag his devastated country into another round of war, this time against Israel. On the other hand, refusal would put him on a confrontation course with the Iranians.
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