On my way back to the hotel from the Delhi embassy area last night, my mobile was filled with alerts. This time it wasn't the Red Alert alerts, to which I've become accustomed over the past two months, but warnings of an attack here, in India, the land of Shanti and yoga.
Searches near the Israeli Embassy in Delhi following the explosion | Reuters
The explosion occurred while dozens of Israelis were in the embassy compound. Next to the IED was a letter of revenge addressed to Israel's ambassador to Delhi, Naor Gilon. The incident ended without casualties, but the NSC has already issued a travel warning for Israelis staying in the area.
A car owned by the Israeli embassy goes up in flames, February 2012, photo: AP
Assessments indicate that Iran was behind the attempted attack. This is not the first time Tehran has used India as a space to exercise its doctrine. In February 2012, the wife of a representative of the Ministry of Defense in India was moderately injured when an IED attached to her car exploded near the mission in Delhi.
Police officers at the scene of the explosion near the embassy, January 2021, photo: AP
On 29 January 2021, an IED exploded near the embassy (there were no casualties). Indian counterterrorism agencies have pointed to the Quds Force as responsible. Even then, the terrorists left a letter of revenge declaring their intention to avenge the deaths of senior Iranian officials. The date of the attack was chosen not by chance: it was the 29th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between India and Israel.
The ship attacked near India, Photo: Reuters
Iran's modus operandi in carrying out such attacks is the same: using an improvised remote-controlled IED by terrorists belonging to a local Shiite unit, in order to maintain a zone of denial and avoid political payment for its actions on the soil of a country with which it has friendly relations. At the same time, under these conditions, Iranian involvement is limited, and therefore the quality of the attacks is less than the extravagance that Tehran craves.
India has the third largest Shiite population in the world, after Iran and Pakistan, and young people on Indian campuses are a major recruitment source for such activities. Another way of recruitment is through students from South and Central Asia who come to study at Iranian academic institutions. According to figures from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, there are about 2,000 Indian students in Iran.
The choice of Delhi was no coincidence. A narrative of "the traitor who goes with the West" was built against India, because it was destined to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia by opening the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor. Despite the friendly relations between Delhi and Tehran, they have been in crisis for the past five years: India was forced to reduce its oil imports from the Islamic Republic, after the US did not extend the exception to sanctions on Iran, which it enjoyed, and increased oil purchases from the US, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Since the outbreak of the war, India has expressed unwavering support for Israel and explicitly condemned Hamas, although for strategic reasons, the Modi government has balanced its condemnations, especially with regard to harm to Gaza's civilian population. However, it seems that the Iranians are reluctantly pulling the Indians into the bosom of the West.
Earlier this week, the British Maritime Trade Agency (UKMTO) reported that a ship with ties to Israel was attacked off the coast of India by a drone launched from Iran. Two days ago, a ship with an Indian crew was hit by a Houthi attack. In response to the incidents, India's Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said yesterday: "Those behind the attacks will even be found at the bottom of the sea and we will take tough measures against them."
As attacks on ships en route to or from India continue, Delhi will have to respond as part of its desire to demonstrate responsible and leading leadership in the evolving maritime security architecture.
The attack in Delhi is a double reminder – to Israel that the Iranian threat of a powerful attack on Indian soil exists, and to Delhi – that its pro-Israel stance may come with payment.
The writer is an expert on India's foreign and security policy, entrepreneur, consultant to technology companies, and senior researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
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