Figures that testify to the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic on the population. For the second consecutive week, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) publishes this Friday the number of weekly deaths since March 1 of this year, date on which the epidemic due to the SarsCov2 virus started in France. Figures that the Institute usually publishes only nationally and monthly, but that it has been decided to make public exceptionally during the current period.
Sylvie Le Minez, head of the demographic and social studies unit of INSEE, details for us the latest data, from compulsory declarations of death reported by the civil status services of all the municipalities of the country.
Between the third and the fourth week of March, certain departments saw the number of deaths soar. What is it exactly?
SYLVIE LE MINEZ. Yes, there is a very marked increase in deaths in the week from March 21 to 27 compared to the previous week. This is very clear when we analyze the data reported dematerialized (Editor's note: computer reports, faster than “paper” reports) . Thus, the case of Seine-Saint-Denis is very striking: 63% more deaths in the third and fourth week, we go from 196 deaths to 320, or 124 more deaths in seven days, a very clear acceleration . If we observe, again for this department, the same dematerialized figures from March 1 to 27 and compare them to 2019, the increase is 32%.
What are the other departments where these increases are observed?
Almost all of Ile-de-France is in this case. In the order of the departments very affected between week 3 and week 4 of March, we find Val-d'Oise with 47% increase, Hauts-de-Seine 36%, Paris 32%, Val- de-Marne 30%, Seine-et-Marne 27%. The regional average is 34%. In Bas-Rhin also the progression is intense: 215 dead the second week of March, 249 the third, 325 the fourth.
And elsewhere in France for this same period?
In certain departments, the increase is impressive: Haute-Marne, with 54% more in one week, Meuse, 46%, Moselle 45%. I would remind you that INSEE does not know the cause of the deaths that the registry offices pass on to it. The data must obviously be cross-referenced with that of other official bodies such as Santé Publique France, which can obviously make the link with Covid-19. What I can say, as a demographer, is that these figures are obviously a sign that we are not in an ordinary period.
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What do the comparisons made between March 2019 and 2020 give?
Again the figures speak for themselves. Thus in the Haut-Rhin, which we know was one of the first centers of the epidemic, there is a 130% increase in deaths reassembled electronically over the period from March 1 to 27: 444 deaths in 2019 for 1020 this year! The Oise, another Covid-19 cluster, increased by 45% over the same period. In addition, we are seeing new areas of increased mortality appear between 2019 and 2020, notably the Bourgogne Franche Comté region. The slight increase that we noted last week in Côte d'Or or in the Doubs is confirmed and accentuated. In this last department, where we recorded 299 deaths between 1 and 27 March 2019, we count 409 this year. These peaks are noted elsewhere, in Aisne for example, where the increase is 31%.
What do the figures say at the national level?
This increase in deaths is starting to have an impact on national figures, which was not yet visible in our data last week. In one week, we have passed over the 2019 death curve. For dematerialized statistics, it is very clear: 13% more. We are also slightly above the 2018 figures, a year when the flu epidemic had been intense and had repercussions until March.
