Catalonia is voting in one of the most uncertain regional elections ever.
Three parties travel shoulder to shoulder in the polls foreshadowing a stalemate, and the wealthy Spanish region ruled by independence forces returns to deal with the painful wounds opened by the clash with Madrid in 2017. A ghost, the latter, only partially corner from the pandemic and the economic crisis, and on which the socialists would like to turn the page in the name of a national pacification without, however, at the moment having the strength.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC), affiliated with the PSOE of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and growing, driven by the figure of the Health Minister Salvador Illa, who in the fight against Covid has gained great visibility, is in fact accredited by a survey of the Pais of 22 % of preferences.
"We have to turn the page in Catalonia after losing a decade," Illa promised in an interview with the Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia.
But the PSC is only one of the three on the podium: it is opposed by the independence front which is again divided between the party of the hard and pure Junts for Catalunya (Together for Catalonia, JxCat) of the exile Carles Puigdemont, given 20.4% of the votes that Laura Borràs nominates for the presidency of the Generalitat (the Catalan government), and the ERC (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, Catalan Republican Left) still chaired by Oriol Junqueras, in prison for the illegal referendum and the declaration of independence in 2017, but pragmatic and less maximalist than the JxCat, which should amount to 20.1% and nominates Pere Aragonès, former vice-president of the Generalitat who became president ad interuim after Quim Torra's oer judicial problems.
To form a majority in the Catalan parliament it takes 68 of the 135 seats available.
The two independence rivals have signed a pact with the minority separatists of Cup and PedeCat not to form any government with the PSC, despite having been decisive in the formation of the socialist-led government of Pedro Sanchez in Madrid.
A sanitary cordon that could also break in the post-vote negotiations, but which for now suggests three probable scenarios: a new vote, not at all to be excluded according to many observers, or a Generalitat again expression of the separatist parties but with a difficult coexistence, with the prevalence of the JxCat maximalists, which could create a new season of tension with Madrid;
or with a majority ERC which, even without rhetorically renouncing the workhorse of the referendum of self-determination, would not attempt major tears.
An uncertainty herald of political stalemate on which the indecision of most of the voters weighs as perhaps never before, with heavy unknowns.
Such as, for example, who will take advantage of the decline of the centrists of Ciudadanos, figures in the El Pais poll of around 8% (10% for others) and the Partido popular (5%).
To mix the cards could be the ultra-right sovereign of Vox, who should be able to enter the Catalan assembly for the first time precisely to oppose any separatist drive, and the exit of the PP.
Unknowns fueled by fears that many voters will not go to vote for fear of becoming infected, by the lack of enthusiasm that much of the current Catalan ruling class arouses.
But also from the fading of independence enthusiasm in Catalan society - the most recent survey indicates that only 44% of Catalans would like to separate from Spain - above all due to the sense of frustration generated by the failure of the autumn 2017 battle: a season that many Catalans now perceive, according to some observers, as unrealistic and rambling.
The polling stations are open from 9 and will close at 20. The results will be known around midnight.
