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Musical performance in Hamburg (in October): Relaxation of the corona measures enable more people to meet indoors again
Photo: Daniel Reinhardt / picture alliance / dpa
For a few weeks now, the number of new corona infections has been rising rapidly every day.
Most recently, at 37,120, there were more than ever in one day.
The seven-day incidence is now down
at 169.9 (as of November 5th).
In its current weekly report, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) writes that the development of the situation is worrying.
And it is to be expected that the increase in the number of cases will continue in the further course of autumn and winter.
Why are the numbers increasing?
Who is infected and who is seriously ill?
And what is the situation like in the hospitals?
The overview.
How can the many new infections be explained?
The RKI wrote in a statement in July that an increase in the number of infections was to be expected in autumn and winter.
The institute's experts recommended, among other things, that the basic protection measures should be adhered to until spring.
The virologist Christian Drosten also stated at the beginning of September that he assumed that Germany would need contact restrictions again in the fall.
A week ago, the number of new infections was very high at 24,668 cases.
On Friday it exceeded 37,000 for the first time - the value has never been so high in Germany.
The current figures can be explained, among other things, by the influence of autumn and winter.
When it gets cold, people spend more time in closed rooms again.
The coronavirus can spread more easily there than in the fresh air.
Experts assume that the number of infections with the coronavirus, all other things being equal, is around 40 percent higher in the cold season than in summer.
In addition, with the low number of infections in summer and the increasing vaccination rate, some protective measures have been relaxed.
In view of the current situation, some federal states are now tightening their measures to contain the pandemic.
The virus hits many unprotected people, especially in schools and daycare centers.
Vaccination is not yet approved for children under the age of twelve.
And among 12 to 17-year-olds, only 42.5 percent are fully immunized so far.
But there is still vaccine picking among adults, especially among younger people.
In the age group of 18 to 59 year olds, according to the officially reported figures, the vaccination rate is around 73 percent.
The RKI reports that the proportion of people who have been vaccinated has hardly increased in recent weeks.
Even if not all vaccinations are recorded, the quotas are not sufficient to curb the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.
Who is currently infected with Sars-CoV-2?
According to the RKI weekly report, the seven-day incidence has increased significantly in all age groups in the past week.
On average, the reported infected people are currently 35 years old, according to the RKI. The Robert Koch Institute recorded the highest incidence among 10 to 14 year olds. It has skyrocketed to 356 new infections per 100,000 people in the past week. In 40 to 44 year olds, the seven-day incidence currently exceeds 200.
According to the RKI, the incidences have also increased significantly in the older age groups.
In people over 60, at least 85.4 percent are double-vaccinated.
But according to the RKI, outbreaks in old people's and nursing homes are increasingly occurring again, which also affect people who have been vaccinated.
In the past week, 135 active outbreaks were documented in old people's and nursing homes.
This could be due to the fact that the elderly were the first to be vaccinated at the beginning of the year and their vaccination protection has already declined somewhat.
What is the situation like in the hospitals?
The situation is slowly coming to a head in the hospitals. According to the RKI, there has been a significant increase in the number of people diagnosed with Covid 19 in intensive care units over the past few weeks. It is to be feared that the available intensive care treatment capacities may be exceeded if the number of new infections does not decrease rapidly, according to the current report.
According to the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi), "a noticeable restriction in the care of the population" is to be expected in the coming period.
Currently, 22,170 intensive care beds are reported as operable, at the beginning of the year there were still 26,475.
The reason for the decline is that the nursing staff is missing.
Because of the stress of the past few months, many nurses have left their jobs.
The number of Covid-19 patients who have to be treated in the intensive care unit is currently 2420, reports the Divi's intensive care registry.
That is 88 more patients than the day before.
The majority of those affected were not vaccinated, as the RKI weekly report shows.
The situation is quite different across Germany.
While in Schleswig-Holstein, for example, a comparatively large number of intensive care beds are still available, in Bavaria over 90 percent of the beds are occupied, as can be seen from the intensive care register.
In Baden-Württemberg, the warning level was proclaimed this week because the critical value of 250 occupied intensive care beds was exceeded.
What influence do vaccinations have?
The RKI continues to rate the effectiveness of the corona vaccination as very high:
Protection against hospitalization is accordingly around 89 percent in the 18 to 59 year old age group and around 85 percent in the 60 and over age group.
The protection against becoming so seriously ill that treatment in the intensive care unit is necessary is around 94 percent in the group of 18 to 59 year olds and around 90 percent in the group of 60 and over.
Protection against death is around 92 percent in the group of 18 to 59 year olds and around 86 percent in the group of 60 and over.
Vaccinated people can also get seriously ill with Covid-19, but the probability is many times lower than with unvaccinated people.
The majority of people who get Covid-19 are not vaccinated.
If symptoms occur in infected people who are fully vaccinated, the RKI speaks of a vaccination breakthrough.
According to the RKI, the proportion of completely vaccinated people among new infections has increased significantly in recent weeks.
But vaccination breakthroughs are to be expected, because even a complete vaccination does not protect 100 percent against infection.
Of the total of 1221 Covid 19 sufferers with breakthrough vaccinations who died, 72 percent were older than 80 years.
According to the RKI, this reflects the generally higher risk of death - regardless of the effectiveness of the vaccines - for this age group.
Why don't the vaccinations work permanently?
The immune system sometimes forgets what it has learned.
With many pathogens, it is normal for people to become infected several times in the course of their lives.
However, the first infection is often the most severe.
Studies have shown that even with corona vaccination, vaccination protection decreases over time and can be increased again with a booster injection.
This is especially true for the elderly, for people with a severely restricted immune system and for high-risk patients who have developed fewer antibodies than usual after the vaccination.
A study by the Charité in Berlin recently examined the extent to which the immune response of older and younger fully vaccinated people differs.
Health professionals from the Charité between the ages of 30 and 48 and people between the ages of 78 and 87 who live in a care home in Berlin were juxtaposed.
The result: Six months after the vaccination, antibodies against the Delta variant were still detectable in almost all of the younger participants.
However, 40 percent of the elderly no longer had neutralizing antibodies.
Leif Erik Sander, vaccine expert from the Charité, called this "another argument in favor of booster vaccination for the elderly".
For whom is a third vaccination already recommended?
The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) currently recommends a refresher for the following groups:
All people aged 70 and over
, provided that six months have passed after the end of the first series of vaccinations.
People living in
retirement and nursing homes
for whom six months have passed since vaccination, in this case regardless of their age.
The Stiko justifies this with an increased risk of disease outbreaks in the facilities.
A third dose should also be offered to
nursing staff
and people who have
close contact with patients
in
medical facilities
.
Here, too, it is a prerequisite that at least six months have passed since the completion of the first series of vaccinations.
According to Stiko, people who have been vaccinated
once with the corona vaccine from
Johnson & Johnson
currently have "insufficient" vaccination protection.
Regardless of age, you are recommended to be boosted with an mRNA vaccine from four weeks after the first vaccination.
The reason: In relation to the number of doses administered, the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson
most vaccination breakthroughs observed in Germany.
In addition, according to Stiko, the remedy is less effective against the Delta variant.
According to the RKI, a single dose only protects about 70 percent against such a serious illness that those affected have to be treated in a clinic.
Even
people who have
a weakened immune system
due to an illness or an organ transplant
and who are therefore particularly at risk of getting seriously ill with Covid should get vaccinated again, according to Stiko.
The following applies to them: There must be at least four weeks between the first series and the refresher.
There is one restriction:
According to Stiko, anyone
who has had a corona infection before or after the vaccination
should currently
not receive a
booster vaccination.
In view of the current pandemic, a debate has broken out about booster vaccinations. The federal and state health ministers agreed at their conference in Lindau that everyone can get a third vaccination six months after the second vaccination. Because of their prioritization of first and second vaccinations, it is primarily older people, those with previous illnesses and medical staff who are initially on the line, said Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU). That booster vaccinations can be of such crucial importance, said Spahn, has only become so clear in the past few weeks.
"The data situation now clearly shows that even in younger people with a healthy immune system, the protection against symptomatic infection decreases somewhat with increasing distance from vaccination, and protection against transmission also decreases," said vaccine expert Leif Erik Sander from the Berlin Charité recently.
"A third vaccination increases protection against symptomatic infection and probably also against transmission." Therefore, a booster vaccination could also be of benefit to younger adults this winter (read here what you should know about the booster vaccination)
.
