If the Government puts in place the possibility of retiring with 41 years of contributions and at least 62 years of age, the resources that could be allocated in the maneuver should be around 700 million for a total audience of 45-50 thousand people.
But it is probable that the actual exits will stop at half of the audience - therefore less than 25 thousand people - especially if it is decided to ban the accumulation with work as was envisaged for Quota 100. In that case, in front of an audience of million people with the requirements in the three-year period 2019-2021, around 380 thousand left.
The amount to be spent for the new "Quota 103" measure would double in 2024 to 1.4 billion, again if the total audience is considered,
Pensions will be one of the fundamental chapters of the next budget law, even if limited resources will reduce the impact of most of the measures, at least compared to what the majority parties promised during the electoral campaign.
Surely the Rai license fee will remain in the bill, as announced by the Ministry of the Economy, despite the Pnrr providing for its exclusion.
On the tax front, as reiterated by Matteo Salvini, there will instead be an increase in the tax rate threshold to 15% from the current 65,000 to 85,000 euros, with an attempt, moreover, to also introduce an incremental flat tax.
The 'fiscal truce' will allow for a new scrapping of files, while the revision of the citizen's income will guarantee around one billion that should flow right into the pension system.
In addition to introducing Quota 41, the government could in fact renew tried and tested tools such as the Women's Option and Ape social.
According to sources close to the dossier, various estimates are being made but it is probable that a mobile window period will be fixed, as was the case for Quota 100.
Then it was three months for private work and six months for the public.
There is a doubt regarding women in the public sector who, in the event of a six-month window, would have a very small advance compared to the current rules which, regardless of age, provide for 41 years and 10 months in addition to a three-month mobile window .
The effectiveness would be practically zero for the women of the school because one retires once a year.
If about 25,000 people were to leave with an average pension of 2,000 euros a month, around 650 million would be spent if the whole year was considered, but instead we need to consider about three months of the sliding window in addition to the fact that access to the measure will not be for everyone from April 1 since some will meet the requirements during the year.
If we consider a six-month average of use for 2023, i.e. for the first year, the expenditure will be around 325 million.
In part, the expense will recover over time, at least for the contributory part, given that the pension that is received is linked to the contributions paid up to that moment.
access to the measure will not be for everyone from April 1st as some will meet the requirements during the year.
If we consider a six-month average of use for 2023, i.e. for the first year, the expenditure will be around 325 million.
In part, the expense will recover over time, at least for the contributory part, given that the pension that is received is linked to the contributions paid up to that moment.
access to the measure will not be for everyone from April 1st as some will meet the requirements during the year.
If we consider a six-month average of use for 2023, i.e. for the first year, the expenditure will be around 325 million.
In part, the expense will recover over time, at least for the contributory part, given that the pension that is received is linked to the contributions paid up to that moment.
The cohorts that will be affected by the measure if the minimum age is set at 62 are only those of 1960 and 1961 (therefore 62 and 63 years) because the older ones have already left with 100 (1959 with 62 years in 2021) and the younger ones will still be blocked.
In fact, anyone who will be 64 years of age and 41 of contributions in 2023 was already 62 of age and 39 of contributions in 2021 and therefore had the requisites for Quota 100.
On the other hand, the possibility of making a contribution to those who decide to stay in work despite having the requisites for retirement seems to have already gone off the radar.
The risk of a flop is very high, as there was for the severance pay in payroll, given that workers would hardly decide to have 10% of their salary in their payroll immediately, renouncing the 33% of contributions paid for their future pension.
