1.
On the Thursday before Sukkot, that is, a week and two days before the war, I was summoned to a meeting with a senior IDF officer. While we were discussing the ties between the media and the IDF, I told him about my longstanding skepticism of the defense establishment in general, and intelligence in particular.
Among other things, I noted that in Operation Protective Edge, in Guardian of the Walls and on other occasions, the military and political assessment was that "Hamas is deterred and does not want a confrontation," but it quickly became clear that the reality was the opposite, and that our side misread Hamas. I wondered if this wasn't a constant missed understanding of the opponent.
The officer replied that the fear of falling into a mistaken conception bothered him personally, the General Staff and the Chief of Staff. He, of course, did think that the IDF's assessments were correct at the time. But to convince me how well he and the others were checking themselves, he got up from the armchairs we were sitting in, went to his desk and brought me the book he had just begun reading, Pearl Harbor – Warning and Decision.
The book's synopsis reads, "On the morning of December 7, 1941, two privates detected an unusual signal on the radar screen. The two reported this to the operations room, which ordered them to ignore it. At 07:55, the first wave of Japanese forces attacked American forces at Pearl Harbor, inflicting heavy casualties. The great surprise in which the United States found itself after the deadly attack has been preserved in the American national memory, and has shaped it to a great extent to this day."
Between Pearl Harbor and the 9/11 attacks, which strategically surprised Americans, 60 years passed. Between the Yom Kippur War and the Simchat Torah War, 50 passed.
It turns out that even when aware of the concept problem, people and countries are not infallible. No drone, thermal camera or artificial intelligence software can prevent you from falling into the error trap. Here, too, the same officer tried – and failed.
2.
But the problem is bigger. Even if that officer had recognized the concept, he would not have had a chance to fight it. The reason for this is that the IDF systematically fights those who think differently. Avinoam Emuna, Ofer Winter, Effi Eitam and Yitzhak Brick are just some of the officers that the system sidelined and sometimes fought because they did not conform, and were usually too belligerent for its liking. The message to others was clear. Going against the concept will cost you your career.
But this is not only the IDF, but all the centers of power that are not elected governments. The judicial system, the media, and the capitalists, who dictated conceptual concepts and worlds, also misread reality.
What these elites did not understand until Black Sabbath is that when the terms for deciphering reality are wrong, it cannot be fully understood. If one understands that masses of Arabs in the Land of Israel, Hamasniks, Fatahniks or those with Israeli citizenship, are the absolute evil, they are the new Nazis, who rise up to destroy the ancient Jews, behave in one way.
If they embellish and falsify reality, they make absurd assumptions that their "economic situation," "occupation," "oppression," "Nakba," and other nonsense make them who they are behave differently. Of course, this does not include everyone, and there are many peace-loving Arabs. But out of a desire to believe that lovers of good are a reflection of society, we didn't notice how evil-loving they were.
Take a small example to illustrate the erroneous conceptual gap. When an Arab leaves the house with a butcher knife with the intention of carrying out an attack, does he want to murder an "Israeli" or a "Jew"? In official state and media announcements, the term "Israeli" is used. This is a mistake. Had the target of the attack been "Israelis," we would have seen countless attacks by "Palestinians" against the Arabs of Taybeh, Nazareth and um al-Fahm, since they too are Israelis.
But terrorists are looking for Jewish blood, not Israeli blood, so the phrase "attack against Israelis" does not accurately describe the facts. Thus, in a decades-long process, the terms "Jewish" and "Arab" were erased from public and state discourse. Until over time, these elites forgot who the enemy was and who loved them, described the settlers as "Nazis" instead of Hamas, accused the Torah nuclei and Ben-Gvir of fanning riots instead of creating them. In short, confuse reality with aspirations.
Another example is the cancellation of the perimeter – the security zone – that was near the border fence in Gaza. Attorney Uri Krov, a former senior official in the State Prosecutor's Office, told Ayala Hasson this week that a petition to the High Court of Justice against the open-fire regulations frightened the army and led to Gazans being able to reach the fence, blow it up and return home safely.
These are fundamental problems that no commission of inquiry will solve. Even if the entire political leadership and the entire General Staff go home, no problem will be solved if the basic concepts and concepts are not corrected. This requires national soul-searching, which only the centers of power themselves can do.
3.
If in the army they aligned themselves according to the concept, in the political system there were a few righteous people. At a dramatic cabinet meeting during the escalation in November 2018, then-ministers Lieberman, Erdan, Elkin, Shaked and Bennett opposed the prime minister's proposal for a ceasefire with Hamas. Netanyahu, the defense establishment and most of the cabinet ministers supported, and the round was nipped in the bud.
There was another opponent of laxity vis-à-vis Hamas: New Hope chairman Gideon Sa'ar, who has now joined the unity cabinet with Gantz and Eisenkot. In 2014, during Operation Protective Edge, Sa'ar said: "Our national goal, which was also presented by the prime minister, is the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. This is the right goal, and this goal must be pursued with determination."
Documentation of the assassination of Hamas terrorists in Gaza | IDF Spokesperson
But when the war ended and the goal was not achieved, he criticized Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon, saying in the government: "I was not one of those who came out publicly in the media and said that the Hamas regime should be toppled, but today I say here that this should have been the goal of the operation."
In 2021, before the Bennett-Lapid government was formed, he attacked the terms of the end of Operation Guardian of the Walls: "Stopping the fighting against Hamas unilaterally would be a serious blow to Israel's deterrence against Hamas, and not only against it. Stopping Israel's military activity, without imposing any restrictions on Hamas' buildup and armament and without returning the soldiers and civilians held in Gaza, will be a political failure whose price we will pay with interest in the future."
The position did not change his approach. During the Bennett-Lapid government, Sa'ar was the only one who opposed the entry of workers from Gaza – a move that later turned out to be a valuable espionage tool for Hamas. "Renewing the entry of workers from Gaza to work in Israel at this time is neither just nor right. Sinwar and Hamas, which engage in incitement and terrorism non-stop, must be removed from their comfort zone," Sa'ar wrote. Hopefully, determination will now accompany him in the crucial cabinet meetings.
4.
Correcting the misconceptions cannot wait until the day after the war, for there is a challenge that is already thrown at our doorstep, based on erroneous assumptions. They are being placed by US President Biden, French President Macron and other Western leaders who have come to Israel to express support and solidarity. "Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people," our best friends in the world argued – and they certainly do so in relation to UN Secretary-General Guterres or Turkish President Erdogan.
These statements are much more than naïve. Along with full support for Israel, Biden and other Western leaders are fantasizing about establishing a Palestinian state within the '49 borders, immediately after the Gaza war ends. When they say "Hamas does not represent," they mean "Abu Mazen does represent, and he will rule Gaza the day after." That is why Biden and others, along with supporting Israel, mention the two-state solution.
Another name that comes up is Muhammad Dahlan. Since Hamas took power, it has lived in the UAE – a model for an advanced Arab state with an interest in preventing the spread of radical Islam and increasing its influence
Israel is not currently arguing with the Americans, which allows the lie to seep in. But silence will come at a heavy price once the main ground operation is exhausted, that is, within a few weeks. What Israel needs to say is that there is no proof for the claim that "Hamas does not represent the Palestinians."
On the contrary, Hamas won by a large majority and legitimate elections in 2006. In his 17 years in power, there has never been a revolt against Sinwar or his predecessors, and on the contrary, masses of Gazans cheered the streets to horror. Hamas is popular in all Palestinian opinion polls, and receives a majority in the student unions in Judea and Samaria. Anyone who claims that Hamas does not represent the Palestinians must explain his position, and not settle for slogans.
Second, is there a big difference between the PA and Hamas? The PA, by law, pays terror allowances to murderers and their families. It is expected to do the same to the thousands of despicable people who participated in the genocide in the surrounding communities. And of course, Abbas and his people educate their offspring to terror and hatred of Jews from infancy. So Israel and any peace-loving person have no reason to replace a criminal with a gangster. This is the moral and strategic concept that Israel must adhere to.
5.
If the PA doesn't control Gaza, then who will? At this stage, the cabinet members agree that it will not be Hamas. The other options are an international regime, or an Egyptian, or another patent that has not yet been found. Another name that comes up is that of Muhammad Dahlan, who is hated by Mahmoud Abbas.
Dahlan is originally Gazan, and was saved by the skin of his teeth by Israel when Hamas seized power in 2006. Since then, he has lived in the UAE – a model for an advanced Arab state with an interest in preventing the spread of radical Islam, pushing out its rival Qatar and increasing its influence. Well, whoever is in Gaza, Israel must insist not only on the security cleansing of Gaza, but also on the expulsion of UNRWA from it. UNRWA provides an infrastructure for terrorism, educates future generations to hate Jews and perpetuates the Palestinian cause.
6.
For the amendment to happen, the one who must fundamentally change his approach is Prime Minister Netanyahu. After all, the monsters of Hamas, UNRWA, the salaries of terror and the PA's activity against us in the world have all grown under his nose. Netanyahu justified ignoring them in the fight against Iran's nuclear program, but even on this front it is hard to say that he has achieved great success.
Judging by the impressions he left on people who spoke with him, Netanyahu did not internalize the magnitude of the rift. How do you know? The cabinet explicitly decided to deny Hamas' governmental and military capabilities, but in his public statements Netanyahu is still playing with words. Therefore, not only the general public, but also members of his cabinet are not convinced that he is fully committed to removing Hamas.
Second, he believes he can continue in his position the day after. He may be ashamed, just like that, of the terrible blow that befell Israel on his watch, but when he says, "Everyone will have to give answers, including me," he means that at least those answers are satisfactory. If this is indeed the case, Netanyahu is misreading reality.
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