The fragile normalization between Israel and Turkey, which managed to survive the Temple Mount riots and Operation Dawn, collapsed after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a pro-Hamas stance in his last speech to the Turkish parliament and at a rally for Palestine on Saturday in Istanbul.
In fact, Erdogan's anti-Israel leanings were obvious. He chose to remain silent on the day of the massacre, October 7, and the next day issued a "balanced" media statement calling on both sides to exercise restraint and taking care not to condemn Hamas for killing innocent Israeli civilians.
Erdogan at rally in Gaza: "Hamas is not a terrorist organization"
Ironically, Erdogan's "balanced" stance was the most "pro-Israel" one could find on the Turkish political spectrum. All opposition parties, including the Turkish secularists and the extreme left, took a pro-Hamas stance from the day of the massacre. Their complete disregard for the massacre of innocent Israelis and their unjustified concern for Palestinians in Gaza has dominated the public discourse. Therefore, the very anti-Israeli atmosphere that was created left Erdogan with no choice but to adopt an even more extreme position than his opponents.
Given Erdogan's strong desire to regain the Istanbul and Ankara municipalities in the upcoming March 2024 elections, it seems that the Turkish president has made this anti-Israel move so as not to lose his base to the Turkish opposition. In other words, Israel has once again become a scapegoat for political gains in Ankara.
But that's not all. The dysfunction of all the country's campaigns on October 7 vis-à-vis Hamas and the unknown fate of the expansion of the Abraham Accords changed the image of the strong State of Israel in Ankara. The change in Turkey's perspective towards the State of Israel can be deciphered from Erdogan's speeches and recent diplomatic moves by the Foreign Ministry in Ankara. In his last speech on Tuesday at the "Rally for Palestine," Erdogan labeled Israel as "a soldier on the chessboard who can be given up." Later, he referred to Israel as a failed state that survives in the Middle East thanks to Western support.
Erdogan's rhetoric is also reflected in Turkish foreign policy. Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan publicly announced that his country wishes to offer a guarantee to the Palestinians in the conflict. When Turks talk about "guarantee," it is imperative to look at the Turkish-Greek conflict in Cyprus. Israel must be vigilant and not ignore the fact that Turkey invaded Northern Cyprus in 1974 thanks to guarantee agreements signed in 1960 between Greece, Britain and Turkey. In other words, with the offer of guarantee, Turkey openly declares its intention and willingness to quarrel with the State of Israel in order to protect the Palestinians both politically and militarily.
We demonstrated support for Hamas in Turkey, Photo: AFP
This is, without a doubt, another deterioration in relations the likes of which we have never known. Unfortunately, we will see darker days in the near future. In the same speech at the rally, Erdogan labeled Israel as an "organization" and described the country as a first-rate threat to Turkish national security. Baselessly, in front of hundreds of thousands of his supporters, Erdogan publicly accused Israel of funding and arming the Kurdish underground organization PKK. Needless to say, like all Western countries, the State of Israel defines the PKK as a terrorist organization and does not support it. Nevertheless, because of the speech, it seems that after every attack carried out by the PKK, many Turks will point an accusing finger at the State of Israel.
As if that were not enough, in a speech at the rally, Erdogan stressed that he intends to open a legal front against senior Israeli officials in The Hague for their role in the war in Gaza. This means that after the war, another war awaits Israel within the walls of the courts.
In retrospect, it can be said that October 7 was indeed a crossroads for "ideological Erdogan" and "pragmatic Erdogan." It seems that the damage to Israel's reputation as a strong country and internal Turkish political considerations have returned the "ideological Erdogan" to the helm of Turkish foreign policy. Therefore, Israel must prepare for future unexpected and expected political crises, such as the legal struggle in The Hague.
Dr. Hai Eitan Cohen Yanarocak is an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan MDC Center atTel Aviv University and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security(JISS)
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us