Too late, and after quite a few zigzags, pressures and threats, the small and expanded cabinet is expected to convene today to discuss the issue of the "day after" in Gaza.
This is a discussion of greater importance than its very existence, the beginning of a process at the end of which Israel is supposed to shape its fate vis-à-vis the Gaza Strip with its own hands. Avoiding it, as various politicians and publicists have suggested, would have caused double damage: it would not have made it possible to direct the IDF's moves (and complementary political moves) to achieve the hoped outcome in the fourth and final phase of the war, and it would have left an opening for another end result that would be less desirable for Israel.
The Political-Security Cabinet, Photo: Haim Tzach/GPO
These insights are so elementary that one suspects that the attempt by several ministers (led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir) to torpedo the discussion stems from the fact that they do not want the war to end, or that they want the war to end under total Israeli control over Gaza. Both answers are equally bad, and they show that it is not strategic thinking that leads them, but religious-messianic fanaticism in the name of which they seek to drag the entire State of Israel into the abyss.
Israel has nothing to look for in Gaza. It must win the war as quickly as it can on the two parameters it has defined for itself – toppling the Hamas regime and severely damaging its military capabilities, alongside the return of the abductees – and return to its border, while maintaining operational freedom of action in the Gaza Strip and security areas west of the fence, while working to demilitarize the Gaza Strip and prevent smuggling and the production of weapons. Civilian control of the Gaza Strip must be left to others, and not sink into concern for education. Welfare, health, infrastructure and jobs for 2.2 million poor and hostile Gazans.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. They will push for the occupation of the Gaza Strip, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Options on the table
There are very few parties that will volunteer to control the Gaza Strip on their own initiative, certainly when this enormous headache is accompanied by the need to rehabilitate the Strip, which is estimated at tens of billions of dollars. The first factor is Hamas, which Israel of course refuses (and rightly so) to allow to continue to rule, even in a weakened or different format, knowing that the weak will one day become strong and then threatening.
The second factor is the Palestinian Authority in one form or another (the proposed model is a reformed Palestinian Authority). The United States, which is pushing this idea, is also offering a generous package of Saudi/Emirati money, and perhaps even a larger deal that will include a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Biden and bin Salman (archive), photo: Reuters
The third factor is an international team of experts, which is doubtful whether there is practical ability to establish it, and it is even more doubtful whether Gaza will not sink under it into Somalia-like anarchy. Such a direction could be dangerous if it was accompanied by an international force ostensibly established to defend the Gaza Strip, but in practice its contribution would be marginal (as happened to UNIFIL forces in Lebanon).
The fourth factor is, as noted, Israel itself. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already made it clear that this is not on the agenda, nor does the official plan that was approved hint at such a direction. It states that at the end of the second phase of the war, in which the IDF is currently located, the third phase of raids and preventions will begin, followed by the fourth stage of transferring responsibility to another party. The defense establishment has been warning for some time that in the absence of an orderly plan for the day after, the IDF may go backwards: instead of moving from the third stage to the fourth, it may return from the third stage to the second.
Golani fighters destroyed "Palestine Square" - where Hamas erected a statue glorifying the APC disaster from Protective Edge // Shadow: IDF Spokesperson
A moment to remember. Soldiers of Battalion 13 after the takeover of the Hamas parliament in Gaza, photo: Use under section 27A of the Copyright Law
High-risk claim
Such a plan is of additional importance, which has become clearer in recent days, in light of South Africa's demand that the International Criminal Court in The Hague determine that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The South Africans rely in their petition, among other things, on a variety of irresponsible statements by Israeli politicians, which indicated that Israel was headed for the destruction and complete occupation of Gaza. Israel has no way of correcting what has been said, but through an orderly plan for the future, it can certainly make it clear that all its moves are directed against Hamas and its regime – and not against the Gaza Strip and its residents.
South Africa's prosecution has very dangerous potential. It could lead to an order demanding an immediate cessation of the sanctioned war, and it could personally threaten senior political and security officials. In order to combat it, Israel needs every drop of international credit it has, especially aid from the Americans, who need "something" to serve them in the face of growing domestic and global criticism of Israel. This "something" is, among other things, the "day after" issue, which is of great concern to the administration in Washington.
International Criminal Court in The Hague, photo: AP
Israel's response to the ICC is expected to include a referral to Israel's Supreme Court, with a commitment that any case of deviation committed in hostilities will be heard before it. In the past, this was enough to save Israel from international courts, and we must hope that the independence of the court and the high regard for it abroad will stand up to Israel even now. Those who rolled over the Supreme Court's ruling on the issue of override yesterday may find that it is not only a defense of democracy, but also a defense of the state and its commanders and soldiers in the broadest sense.
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