America grows again.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of the world's leading economy increased by 0.6% (2.6% annualized) in the third quarter of the year, despite the increases in the aggressive increases in official interest rates that have approved the Federal Reserve to cool it, according to data published this Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of Commerce.
“The increase in real GDP reflects increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, which were partially offset by declines in investment. residential fixed and investment in private inventories.
Imports, which are subtracted in the calculation of GDP, decreased”, he explained.
The figure was slightly above forecast (an annualized rate of 2.4%), thanks mainly to the foreign sector.
Despite the strength of the dollar, exports have grown strongly (the United States is exporting more oil than ever) and imports have fallen.
The data shows a cooling of the real estate sector.
The rise in mortgage interest rates (30-year rates have just exceeded 7% for the first time since 2001) have weighed on home sales, which will mean a slowdown in construction.
Consumption is growing, but it is also beginning to slow down in real terms due to high inflation.
Public spending also drives activity.
International Trade
The US economy has had a unique behavior this year, with two consecutive slight quarterly declines, of 0.4% in the first quarter and 0.1% in the second, which is traditionally considered an indicator of recession.
However, these declines in activity have been accompanied by strong job creation and a historically low unemployment rate, at 3.5%, according to the latest data, which raises doubts that it can be considered that there was indeed a recession
The variation in inventories and, above all, international trade have played a key role in these apparent distortions.
The curious thing is that now that it seems that the labor market is beginning to cool down and to feel the interest rate hikes with which the Federal Reserve wants to combat inflation at a four-decade high, the national accounts show a rising GDP.
Economists believe that such rate hikes could end up triggering a full-blown recession later this year or early next, slowing down activity and driving up the unemployment rate.
The central bank is expected to approve next week the fourth consecutive increase of 0.75 points in official interest rates, which will leave them in a range of 3.75% to 4%, when at the beginning of the year they were practically in zero.
Inflation itself, uncertainty and changing economic conditions make it difficult to measure GDP.
What is published today is the first estimate of the data for the third quarter, which will be followed by at least two revisions in the coming months, which also means that it must be taken with some caution.
The data comes in the final stretch of the campaign for the midterm legislative elections of Joe Biden.
For voters, the economy is America's number one problem.
The GDP data, however, is much colder than the job creation data and, above all, than the inflation data, which is the one that is dominating the campaign.
The Republicans hope to wrest control of the House of Representatives from the Democrats and hope to win the Senate as well, although the situation there is more balanced.
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