"The political elections will be decided in the single-member constituencies of the Rosatellum:
this is what emerges from the latest mapping developed by
YouTrend in partnership with Cattaneo Zanetto & Co
, based on the electoral law in force and on the latest Quorum / YouTrend survey for Sky TG24".
So in a statement.
"If the center-right at the national level is ahead,
there are still many territories where the favored coalition is uncertain or in the balance, sometimes for very few votes.
Since the Rosatellum provides that
in the constituencies candidates can be supported by coalitions, the latter are For this reason,
three scenarios
were considered:
in scenario A the PD and the left forces are allied with the centrists but not with the 5 stars, in B they are not allied with the centrists nor with the 5 stars and in C they are allied with the 5 stars but not with the centrists ".
" To date there are up to 67 (43 in the House and 24 in the Senate in scenario C) the single-member constituencies that can be contested by the coalitions in the field based on the alliances
with which they will go to the polls: areas of the country with very different histories and social characteristics among them, united by the extreme uncertainty of the electoral outcome.
They range from the Sesto San Giovanni college, with the former Stalingrad of Italy in the Milanese suburbs that would be contestable if the Democratic Party enlarged its coalition to the left and centrists, up to the Ragusa college,
who would see a head-to-head if the center-right were opposed by a yellow-red alliance with the center-left and the Allied 5-Star Movement.
Perhaps the most striking example
is the college of Giugliano in Campania, which in the case of three poles - with the pentastellati running alone - would be within the reach of all three coalitions:
it is the most contestable college in Italy, in this scenario.
And then there are single-member colleges that are contestable in all three hypothesized alliance schemes:
Forlì, Ancona and Pisa, but also the urban colleges of Rome-Fiumicino and Turin Nord
would be on the line whatever the alliances between the lists ".
" In short, the territories in the balance change according to the scenario
- continues Youtrend - but they are still decisive, so much so that they can shift the electoral outcome from a center-right super-majority to an ungovernable Parliament without any coalition obtaining a majority.
The result of next September 25 will greatly depend on who conquers the contestable single-member colleges. "
Methodology: the mapping of the single-member colleges produced by YouTrend in partnership with Cattaneo Zanetto & Co was developed starting from the results of the latest Quorum / YouTrend survey for Sky TG24, carried out between 22 and 23 July 2022 with 977 interviews conducted with the CAWI methodology on a representative sample of the Italian adult population.
