The
Bank of Italy
further improves the estimate for the
2022 GDP
which would have risen by
3.9
% while, for
2023
, the economy will slow down to
+0.6
%, a few points more than +0.4% in any case expected in December and +0.3% in October.
This is what is foreseen by the basic scenario of the economic bulletin of the central institute according to which instead, in 2024, the estimate is "corrected slightly downwards (+1.2%) due to a more contained increase in consumption".
Under an adverse scenario with a halt in energy supplies from Russia, GDP would shrink by almost 1 percent in both 2023 and 2024 and grow moderately in 2024.
The expensive energy is responsible for over two thirds of inflation in Italy.
According to estimates by the Bank of Italy, considering both the direct and indirect effects, in the fourth quarter just over 70% of overall inflation was attributable to energy". marked on the general price index". For the bank, the "reactivity of the prices of non-energy industrial goods and services is statistically significant, but quantitatively modest;
food prices, on the other hand, show a higher sensitivity, as well as being typically more volatile".
